binary solo said:
I think you can only say that when Kinect sells as much as Wii Fit and Wii Sports. It hasn't stopped Wii from outselling 360 on BF week in it's strongest market. And I'm thinking Wii is gonna outsell 360 by a wide margin this holidays (and PS3 even wider). I think for the 360 2011 may be to 2010 as 2009 was to 2008. In particular I figure June, July, August 2011 will be considerably lower than those months this year, unless MS do a price drop at E3 (which they may do for Kinect / Kinect Bundles). And I don't see Kinect pushing as much HW next holidays as it will this holidays. So without a game changing move in 2011 360 will go into weekly YoY deficit some time in June and pretty much stay that way. So it will be all about the lead it can build up in the first half of the year. At this stage I'm going to say that 2010 is 360's peak year unless it cuts price without PS3 cutting by the same amout at about the same time. I read somewhere that Sony is reporting the cost of production of PS3 is falling quite fast, so I figure a $100 price cut is incoming in 2011, [Edit] with it still selling at a profit. |
But i dont think even a price cut would be as important as the redesigned slim and the lauch of Kinect. which has come at a cost of half a billion $ of marketing. are mircosoft willing to spend that each year so they can just about top their previous year, but still come behind the yearly total of PS3 and Wii.
