Could PS3 be the #1 selling home console in EMEAA in Q4? I think so!

[Michael-5]

postofficebuddy said:

Michael-5 said:

postofficebuddy said:

As I pointed out above if you look at the YOY comparison you can see it's still very much up in the air. Assuming PS3 can remain at least flat in December (all signs point towards it being up) the best case scenario I can see for the Wii is it outselling the PS3 by 600k in December and that's being pretty optimistic about the Wii's YOY chances and pessimistic about the PS3's.

For Q4 PS3 is only ahead of the Wii by about 330k, and most of that is from October sales. Like I said Wii sales pick up at this point, I expect December sales for the Wii to be 100-200k greater the PS3 weekly. So Wii should end up with up to 500k more sales then PS3 for Q4. 360 is a better compeditor for the PS3, after Kinect PS3 and 360 sales are alost level. PS3 will be above 360, but not by as much as Wii will be above PS3.

If you look at PS3 sales, they haven't increased much since early October, and there are no real signs for it to jump on a weekly basis for December. GT5 will boost PS3 sales, but probably no more then a couple weeks like Halo did in Americas.

I mean it's possible, but it's unlikely. I don't think GT5 will be enough to kill the Wii momentum.Worst case all 3 home consoles will see similar sales figures.

I'm not really looking at this from a PS3 vs. Wii perspective, this is purely from a YOY standpoint.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 29th Nov 2009 to 02nd Jan 2010:

Console	PS3
Total Others	1,828,210

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 29th Nov 2009 to 02nd Jan 2010:

Console	Wii
Total Others	3,055,587

All signs point towards the Wii being down AT LEAST 20% in December, realistically more like 25%-30%. It's down about 35% for the quarter overall so far. On the other hand PS3 is actually up YOY for the quarter so far (barely) and that's without GT5 being out. If PS3 is up 10% YOY in December and Wii is down 25% than Wii wouldn't even outsell PS3 by 300k that month and I'm confident that the gap will be more than that by the end of November.

I don't eliminate it as a possibility, but understand that PS3 and 360 compete for the same gaming audience (HD Gamers). So if Kinect is successful, it will hurt PS3 sales.

Also YoY sales, it's a bit ambiguous. Okay PS3 is matching sales figures from October until now from 2009, but there is no garentee it will remain that strong. Even if they stay on par, thats still 0% better then 2009. Yes GT5 is comming out, but Kinect will offset that (since PS3 and 360 compete for the same market share).

Also we have no real evidence Wii will sell 25% worse in 2010 December then in 2009. Wii generally gets mega strong sales in December. I know Wii has had a weaker year overall, but Holiday season sales for the Wii probably won't be affected too strongly.

So it's possible, but unlikely IMO. I think PS3 will sell more closely to the 360 which is selling a lot more strongly in EMEAA then it did in Q4 2009.