Looking back at 2008, when X360 had a real price cut, GTA momentum, COD, a decent run in Japan etc the figures aren't dramatically different yet even with Kinect. I'm still somewhat suspicious that this will be Microsoft's best Dec quarter for hw by a country mile. It looks slightly better, when I run COD / Kinect / BF in my models for Nov / Dec but we're talking 6m in sell through for Oct-Dec 2010 vs. 5.8m in Oct-Dec 2008. USA retailers continue to sell out of Kinect sensors, but no widespread sellouts of hw kinect bundles...which is a good result but its not pushing many systems. Only 1/6 Kinects are pushing hw it seems, the equivalent of a really big game.
X360 sales over the five weeks ending week one of Nov are 1.10m in 2010, and 1.08m in 2008. That includes the Americas Kinect launch in 2010. I'd expect November to be up on 2008 and December too. But by how much remains an open question.
PS3 is also down by 100k over the past five weeks compared to those weeks of 2009. GT5 should reverse that through the end of Nov to neutrel to slightly positive. But whether December is up or down...is an open question. My gut says down but we'll see. Wii is obviously down on last year, as it laps the price cut, but the distance it is down has been shrinking rapidly. Sell through looks good for 9m again vs. 12m last year. For shipments, probably 9m is doable, down from 11.3m last year.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
