As a method of forecasting for the community, I've assmbled numbers from all corners of the internet to show how consoles sell in the USA over time. These figures are by calendar year - so NES year one is 1985 (even though it only launched in NYC that year), PS1 year is 1995, PS2 year one is 2000, Wii year one is 2006. I'm only doing this for USA consoles to top 10m units lifetime. Figures are mishmosh of shipments (for NES / early 16 bit numbers) old figures cited in news papers, VGC estimates for the USA, and some old NPD figures I've found.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | |
| PS2 | 1.10 | 6.17 | 8.39 | 6.31 |
| NES | 0.09 | 1.00 | 4.10 | 6.40 |
| PS1 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 5.05 | 7.10 |
| Wii | 1.08 | 6.29 | 10.16 | 9.59 |
| SNES | 3.09 | 7.00 | 4.35 | 3.25 |
| X360 | 0.61 | 3.91 | 4.62 | 4.74 |
| N64 | 2.00 | 4.50 | 4.15 | 3.50 |
| Gen | 0.08 | 0.44 | 1.60 | 4.50 |
| Xbox | 1.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| GC | 1.20 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| PS3 | 0.69 | 2.56 | 3.54 | 4.32 |
| Avg | 1.09 | 3.57 | 4.76 | 5.09 |
Basically, for consoles released in the USA that have topped 10m since 1985, Year One to Year Four sales are on average about 14.5m units.
Within 10% (13m-16m) we find the following systems:
PS1, N64, X360.
More than 10% below the average after four years (0-13m) we have these systems:
NES, Genesis, GC, Xbox, and PS3.
More than 10% above the average after four years (16m+) we have these systems:
SNES, PS2, Wii.
X360 has already been on the market for five years, and we have 10 months of data for the USA for PS3 and Wii so my estimates for year five are this - although it doesn't really matter too much as Wii / PS3 won't impact the average pace too much - they're just raising it slightly since Wii is the record-setting console in the USA and PS3 is pretty much on an average sales pace now.
| System | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| PS2 | 1.10 | 6.17 | 8.39 | 6.31 | 4.68 |
| NES | 0.09 | 1.00 | 4.10 | 6.40 | 9.20 |
| PS1 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 5.05 | 7.10 | 5.80 |
| Wii | 1.08 | 6.29 | 10.16 | 9.59 | 7.89 |
| SNES | 3.09 | 7.00 | 4.35 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| X360 | 0.61 | 3.91 | 4.62 | 4.74 | 4.77 |
| N64 | 2.00 | 4.50 | 4.15 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Gen | 0.08 | 0.44 | 1.60 | 4.50 | 3.56 |
| Xbox | 1.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
| GC | 1.20 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.70 |
| PS3 | 0.69 | 2.56 | 3.54 | 4.32 | 4.42 |
| Avg | 1.09 | 3.57 | 4.76 | 5.09 | 4.47 |
By year five, an average 10m+ system will be at 19m units in the USA. Systems within 11% of that (17m-21m) are NES, SNES, PS1 and X360. Systems below 17m after year five are Genesis, N64, GC, Xbox, and PS3. Above 21m, we find Wii and PS2.
What it Means to Be Average (in 2010)
If you conservatively model in the three current systems, and PS2 for the rest of the years they will be on the market, you find that among gaming consoles in the USA since 1985, average sales pace now should be considered about 28m. That figure is mainly being held up by NES, PS1, PS2, and Wii - which all got to at least 30m in the USA and Wii likely to push beyond 50m in the USA given that it will be nearly two years ahead of the PS2 pace in the USA after Christmas. I'm pretty sure X360 will be within 10% of 28m in the USA, and PS3 will probably get to 24m or so here so the averages are fairly useful as long term predictors.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
