2012 or 2013 is reasonable, it will allow to offer a Wii2 twice or thrice as powerful as a PS3 (Nintendo isn't a power hog, but Wii is anyway more than twice as powerful as a PS2) at a reasonable price and being profitable from the start. Also, Nintendo needs to observe how successful Kinect will be on a long enough period, to decide if including also hands-free camera based controls will be necessary or not. BTW, next gen Nintendo will have to be sure to release a console with the same amount of RAM as competitors, to avoid any unnecessary difficulty for porting 3rd party multiplats. RAM is already very cheap now, but anyway, not releasing too early will help to furtherly reduce this particular cost. And finally, the bigger Wii's user base will be when Wii2 is released, the most even reluctant 3rd parties will find appealing to support it. By Q3 2012, Wii total sales will surely exceed 100M, nobody will be able to ignore it.
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