Kinect will have little or no impact on the console sales race. PS3 with PS Move has it beaten already. PS3 with Gran Turismo  5 will smash the 360 and Kinect in sales. PS Move is much more affordable than Kinect. PS Move has a low price entry point than Kinect. Lower price attracts more consumers. 

Both Wii and the 360 have had their peak sales years in 2008. PS3 continues to sell year on year increases in sales every year since its launch in November 2011. 2006/07 = 8 million. 2007/08 = 9 million. 2008/09 = 10 million 2009/10 = 14million. 2010/11 PS3 is expect to sell should sell 15 million.

PS3 is on track to sell up to 55 million in time for its 5th year anniversary in November 2011. PS3 on the same pace as PS1, which sold 40 million console systems  in its first four years on the market between 1995 to 1999. The PS3 tracks behind the Wii and PS2 but the PS3 still has time highest selling system of all time. PS2 with 135 million, sold around 30 million console systems than the PS1 with 105 million.. PS3 can outsell the Wii and it can even outsell PS1. Catching PS2 may be a stretch but not impossible.

Both the PS3 and the Wii will outsell the PS1, but theymay not ever catch the PS2. If one system has a chance of outselling the PS2, it must be the PS3. 

2011/12, 2012/13: should be peak sales years for the PS3 as it establishes itself in second place and closes the gap down on the Wii. The Wii and the 360 both have their hardware limitations which do not limit the PS3. Blu-Ray and the extra juice the PS3 CPU processor makes PS3 the dream platform for game developers to design and build the latest  technological advanced games. 

Uncharted 2, God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5 and more games on the horzon set the PS3 as being on par with most of the PC games and head and shoulders in front of its inferior  7th generation console competitors. PS3 is a guaranteed cheap  future investment into gaming and Blu-Ray. 

I  make a bold lifetime sales estimate that the PS3 will sell between 110 million and 150 million console systems ltd. Wide range: PS3 will join PS1, Wii and PS2 as being a 100 million selling system in a console generation. do not be surprised the PS3 finished first this bgeneration and ultimately passes the PS2 in total console sales. Expanding world population, increasing popularity in console systems and more consumers  has lead to an increase in console systems being sold through out the world. 

Critics should never underestimate the success of the Play Station brand and the mighty power of Sony.