My personal guestimate is that the move now has an install of about 1million with about 1.5 million move units (starter packs/contollers) sold to consumers. I think the 2.5 million sold to retailers will be sold through by christmas and you can expect about a few hundred thousand to be sold in Japan at least. So I think by Christmas the move will have sold about 3million units and have an active userbase of about 2 million.
While these numbers are not phenomenal in themselves (but certainly not a flop), I think it will be a nice money maker for Sony and a huge step to making the PS3 profitable. I also think it will allow the PS3's already great library to be expanded by decent Wii ports that could not be done before because of the lack of motion controls (I'm looking at you Zack and Wiki). And also game genres that are just generally hard to do because of joypads (point and click adventure/some sports/rail gun games).
The move is great tech and I think the real test for long term sales will be dedicated first and third party support for move exclusive games.
