My Prediction on Kinect sales

[Michael-5]

Reasonable said:

The big "what if" for me around Kinect is whether MS would consider making it mandatory - i.e. say early next year having it bundled with every new 360.

I think they seem willing to take a modest loss if necessary to get Kinect into living rooms, or at least cut any profit on 360 sales down to break even, so I could actually see MS do this.

If they do, then of course unless 360 sales collapse - which seems pretty unlikely - then Kinect would sell very well indeed as every new owner would have one whether they use it or not.

This approach would also mean most new 360 owners would at least dabble in some Kinect titles and further bolster the platform.

By making Move an accessary Sony are taking a very big risk it simply sells to a minority of owners.

MS I think are determined to try and push Kinect to a majority of owners - at least going forward - and making it effectively mandatory would do that.

On the other hand, we all know one of the main Xbox team who left was complaining that MS wouldn't listen to him when he said Kinect should be mandatory, so maybe they will take the same route as Sony and just have it as an optional accessary.

Well Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus did very well, and they too are optional peripherals. The 360 doesn't have the same audience, but I can definatly see a few 5 million selling Kinect games (other then Kinect Adventures). A Wii with a Wii Balance board is the same price as a 360 Arcade/Kinect bundle, so you never know.