Sony: Likely to meet annual PS3 sales target.

[Michael-5]

evolution_1ne said:

this uhhh 15% you got a link?? your saying during the time of the 08 360 surge when it got the arcade and 199 price drop, people decided to get the pro model without the price drop, well that's makes sense

Machael Patchner on the Bonus Round, Gametrailers...LOL

I know he doesn't make the most reliable predictions, but past tense claims are true.

I don't know exactly which episode, but back in 2008 when the 360 was split between a $199 Arcade, $299 Pro, and $399 Elite, he said roughly 80% of sales are on the Pro model, 10% on the Arcade, and 10% on the Elite. So the 360 was effectivly marketed as a cheaper console then the PS3 ($300 vs $400). However the bulk of 360 sales have never been Arcade models.

15% is my estimate on the arcade model since the $400 spec 360 has been removed and the Pro became the Elite. It may be less then 15%, but I was lenient.

You can also see the jump in 360 sales after the 360 Slim was announced, remember the arcade was released a month after the console revision? Sales only jumped by like 20k the week the Arcade Slim was announced and continued to decline on a weekly bases like before. I mean the slim 360 came out a month later in EMEAA, and sales jumped for the Elite model by up to 100k, why didn't the Slim?

Also when old SKU get clearance prices after june, 360 sales did not jump in EMEAA, at least not more then 5k weekly. It's only after the Slim did sales jump.

I know a $200 PS3 WILL boost sales, and if they do that this fall, then maybe the PS3 can peak this year (since it's already 1 million ahead of last year), but assuming a $200 PS3 isn't availible for 2011, I just can't see how the PS3 will peak in 2011.

I'm in no way saying that "your wrong and I'm right." I'm just giving my opinion, and I think I have given sudstantial ground to base it off. It's not a "narrow minded" approach, it's following trends and patterns and involves making a hypothesis on future sales.

Just after 2-3 years, ALL consoles start to lose thunder. The last strong year the DS had was last year where it still sold near peak levels. That was it's 4th full year on the market, and it was still below peak sales. Now in it's 5th year sales are only about half. I use the DS as an example, as all other consoles have dropped off in sales significantly sooner. The Wii and PS2 being two other prime examples, hitting peaks in only 2 full years on the market, and in the PS2's case it's peak year in Americas was it's first full year on the market.

Also if you allign PS3 and PSP's launches, you will see that except for the 4 month offset (PS3 launching in Nov, PSP in March), yearly sales are very similar. PSP dropped in sales by about 30% in 2009, and will further drop another 30% or so this year.