I have Sept - Dec down for PS3, but at worst they're on track for flat fiscal year shipments (13m) and I think 14m is more likely than anything.
To reach 15m, they need a better Oct-Dec in the USA & Japan, and I don't see it.
From April 5 - Sept 12 2010 in Japan they're up about 60,000 units over 2009 levels - and that will dissappear over the next month or so as PS3 continues to lap the Slim / Price Cut. In the USA from April to August 2010 they're up about 325,000 units over Apr-Aug 2009 - and most of that will dissappear in September as Sony laps the Slim / Price Cut. By the end of September, USA Japan will be up by 50,000 - 100,000 units over 2009. I don't have Europe figures right here, but given that October should be weaker as well, and that GT5 won't push PS3 to a 200k week in Japan as FFXIII did, I really don't see how Japan and the USA can be up, as October sets up Nov / Dec in the USA and FFXIII >>> GT5 in Japan. Europe / Others will have to be up by 1.5m - 2.5m to meet the 15m projection.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
