360 Closing 43M - Will it Beat 50M by Years End ?

[Michael-5]

binary solo said:

Michael-5 said:

binary solo said:

Slim PS3 didn't boost salesd all that much. I think PS3 sales in Q4 2009 would have been fairly similar if the phat remained and it got the $100 price cut. I think slim gave it somewhat of an extra push, but it was at least 85% price cut that did it. 360s will translate to higher 360 sales than 2009, but I would be surprised if it translated into sales >2008. If they whipped out a $50 price cut at the time Kinect launched that would throw all predictions out the window.

If 85% of the PS3 sales boost was due to a price cut last year, why bid 360 sales only go up by about 15-20% despite getting the same price cut? How come with the 360 Slim, sales jump during the weeks the Slim model was introduced to EMEAA/Japan, and again for the Slim arcade in all regions. If it's jump were mainly due to price, wouldn't the entire jump be from day 1 Americas launch?

I mean if discounts make that huge of a difference, in the analysis of 360S and PS3S, why did they allign sales from the launch of the Slim model, and not the day of the price cut on old SKU?

Also why did only the PS3 price cut to $300 significantly benefit PS3 sales? Before that Sony mande PS3 price cuts, but sales never went above 360's. At $400 the 360 outsold the PS3 also at $400, so why did a drop to $300 only affect the weaker selling console?

You guys don't give the Slim effect the credit it deserves, only because of a PS3 Slim PS3 sales were above 360, now it's back to normal. Even when sales balance out again after the holidays it will be in favor of 360 (but by less then 10k a week).

A pity we don't have the graphing function as it would make it easier. If we did then you could see at a glance PS3 vs 360 weekly sales since PS3's launch and you'd know that your statement "Before that Sony mande PS3 price cuts, but sales never went above 360's." is incorrect.

Basically when 360 Elite sku = PS3 entry level sku then PS3 outsells 360 WW, especially if the Arcade sku is $100 cheaper than entry level PS3. When 360 Elite is cheaper than entry level PS3 and 360 Arcade goes to >/= $150 cheaper then 360 outsells PS3. In 2008 PS3 was outselling 360 for the first ~9 months: PS3 5.53 million vs 360 4.62 million, then the 360 price dropped and weekly sales swung vastly in 360's favour so that 360 ended the year with more sales than PS3: PS3 9.38M, 360 10.65M. No slim, just a price cut. And of course the reverse happened in 2009.

You say it's back to normal, but there really hasn't been a "normal" between PS3 and 360, because everytime there's a significant change the weekly sales trend alters. It's clear that PS3 has had significant periods where it has outsold 360 on a weekly basis prior to the PS3 Slim. So it's simply erroneous to suggest that PS3 Slim caused an abberation in the relative sales between 360 and PS3. There hasn't been 2 consecutive holiday periods (Late Oct - end Dec) when PS3 has outsold 360, or 360 outsold PS3. This year could have been the year PS3 got 2 holiday periods in a row, but 360s Kinect could see the alternating pattern remain. Though I think 2010 will be closer than either 2008 and 2009, including being closer for the Wii.

And 360 only got a virtual price cut in 2009. They simply ditched the Elite sku, beefed up the Pro and re-named it Elite. Importantly in 2009 the Arcade didn't get a price cut. So MS collapsed 3 sku price levels down to 2.  The difference between the PS3 price cut and the 360 sku adjustments was that there was no PS3 at the $299 price prior to the price cut, but there was a 360 sku at the $299 price, and there was also a 360 sku below that price.

And this time 'round it's still not just a pure slim effect. It must be noted that the 360 phats got clearance sale price reductions, which for a proportion of the market put the 360 at a clear price advantage over the PS3. I have no idea how many clearance 360's got sold, but they likely represented a non-negligible % of overall 360 sales in the last few months. 

 

I've been tracking VGCharts for close to 3 years now. I admit not looking at weekly sales every week, but for the most part I have seen 360 sales above PS3 sales basically since the PS3 launch to the Slim PS3.

Anyway, very intelligent responce, and I look forward to debating with you right now.

If you look at "mind the gap" and look onto the 2008 period, you do see that from October 2007-June 2008, sales were in favour of the PS3. The sales difference dropped from about 7 million down to 6 million.

Actually looking at the data, I kind of agree with you, sales have been all over the place prior to the 2009 PS3 Slim price cut. From December 2006-2007, the sales difference was a statistical tie, I think the 360 outsold the PS3 by 260k. During the first half of 2008, PS3 outsold the 360 by about 20%, and come August/Spetember 2008, 360 sales jumped from 6 to 8.4 million. From December 2008-August 2009 sales were slighly in favor to the 360, but essentially tied, and when the PS3 Slim came in with a price cut the difference dropped from 8.4 million to 4.7 million in a period of 10 months (until the 360 Slim). Now in the 2-3 dry summer months the 360 has returned 700k of those sales in its favour, making the difference to 5.4 million.

As for this time around, I've been watching weekly sales, and when the clearance 360's hit EMEAA with the Slim still a month away, the 360 sales were roughly the same. Only when the Slim 360, and Slim 360 Arcade released did sales sky rocket. However I bet a lot of people thought old SKU for $50 less, or new SKU.

Anyway I'm not saying a price drop will not push PS3 sales. It's just in my opinion, Microsoft has more leg-room on price. The 360 is cheaper to develop, and MS is willing to loose more $$$. Yes in 2008 PS3 gained about a million consoles, but when 360 made it's price drop in 2008 it gained 2 million.

I think the Slim models were the only wild cards Sony and MS can play that cannot be countered.

People think a price drop will boost PS3 sales, but not 360's, thats why some people think PS3 will catch up to 360 sales in the future, but my arguement is that and price drop Sony makes, MS can match and return.

However I do agree with you, I just think "normal" sales means that annul sales will be roughly the same, with a slight gain on 360, and I think 2011 will be like that.

Then again there are many factors, if both consoles are $199, the 360 arcade will be say $129, will that take off and really sky-rocket 360 sales? Also how will Kinect and GT5 fair to console sales in the future? Finally when will successors release?

As for the topic at hand, I feel that the 360 Slim will boost sales more then it's 2008 price cut, Halo: Reach will push more consoles then Halo 3, and Kinect will also set a new image for the 360. I see nothing but good things for Microsoft for this year, and I think the 360 will surpass 50 million WW sales, maybe even up to 51 million if Kinect really takes off.