Understanding Halo

[Michael-5]

gekkokamen said:

Michael-5 said:

gekkokamen said:

Slimebeast said:

Reach will struggle to outsell Halo 3. I don't think it will.

3.5 mill first week. 10 million lifetime.

Still those are amazing sales.

I with you there and I have a very good theory for that too:

 

When Halo 3 came out, not only there was less competition in the FPS genre let alone the whole 360 library, the main thing back then was THE CALL OF DUTY MONSTER HADN'T EVOLVED.

Fast forward 3 years later and 3 soon to be 4 Call of Duty games enter the battefield and the market is a lot more competitve, the audience much more dispersed.

Back in late 2007 when the Xbox was starting to lower its price and building up install base, many of the new owners bought Halo 3. However you have to consider many of those owners didn't stay very attached to the franchise. Of course, millions of them still are and those hardcore fans were the first to jump into it 3 years ago, but today there are just many more Call of Duty players and we have think many of those probably bought Halo and then moved to other things. For many of them Halo 3 was just a good game to accompany their 360 purchase.

This holiday season and Q1 2011 will have too many strong franchises competiting for gamers' money, that really wasn't the case for Holiday 2007 and beginning of 2008. But if you must take something out of this analysis is what I said above about Halo 3 launching in the middle of an early expansion period for the X360, when many gamers bought the console with the first iteration of its Number 1 franchise this generation. That and the COD phenomenon was just starting.

First of all, great comment. Been meaning to reply to this, but I've been away.

It's validity is debatable, then again most things are.

What your saying is that Halo will pull what Resistance did, it sold well in it's first game because of a small game library, but now that the library has expanded, it won't do as well. However, explain the Pre-orders, they are 1.5x Halo 3, and over 2 times as great as ODST's, and the game still has 2 weeks to build pre-orders. Halo: Reach will be the first game to ever break 2 million pre-orders. Bigger library aside, Halo is a crowning title, it's going to be one of the best rated 360 exclusives, it's going to have one of the best FPS campaigns, it's going to have one of the best online multiplayer modes, and best of all, it will be the best co-op (Unless Gears 3 surprises).

Your other point is that Modern Warfaret monopolized the market, but thats not entirely true. Modern Warfare trailers and previews flooded the internet before Halo 3, and it's debut trailer has been one of the top 10 viewed trailers on Gametrailers for years. Also When Modern Warfare came out 2 months after Halo 3, that should have cut Halo sales, but it didn't. Even when websites were saying Call of Duty 4 was getting more matches played then Halo 3, Halo was still keeping pace with sales.

Even now, Halo 3 is the second most played X-Box game online, comming second only to Modern Warfare 2, a game that was released last year. If Call of Duty truely monopolized the market, why is Halo 3, after being out for 3 years, charting more games online then World at War, Modern Warfare 1, Lost Planet 2, Gears of War 2, Fable 2, Forza Motorsport 3,, Halo 3: ODST? Halo 3 is a 3 year old game, and it's being played more then every other game except for the recent Modern Warfare title.

As for competition, I'm sick of hearing people say that Halo 3 had less competition. Thats completely false. It has Modern Warfare, Mass Effect, The Orange Box, Bioshock, Metroid Prime 3, and Uncharted to compete with. Six other shooters (Mass Effect being half shooter), all of them released between August and November of 2007. What competition does Halo Reach have? Black Ops, Medal of Honor and Metroid: Other M? Metroid: Other M isn't even a shooter, it's predominantly 2D. Yes there is also Vanquish, and Quantum Theory, but those games are not garenteed 9/10 or greater ratings, and most likely will not sell too well.

So Halo 3 had 6 games to compete with, Halo Reach only has 2.

You also mentioned that new gamers were buying lots of 360's then with Halo 3, because of an "expansion period." Well guess what, even more people buy 360's now, 2010 is looking to be 360's peak year in sales. The 360 is selling exactly 33.3% better in 2010 then it did in 2007, and with the recently released Slim 360, isn't the 360 market going through an even bigger "expansion period?"

Also please explain why Halo: Reach pre-orders are higher then Modern Warfare 2 pre-orders were, despite Halo: Reach being released after the slowest month of the year in terms of game sales/pre-orders (August)?

May I ask you how reliable is this pre-order data? What is the source of this pre-order data and which retailers does it comprehend?

Even if a 2 million pre-order estimate becomes true, sales could be very heavy front-loaded.

Everything you say about Halo Reach becoming "best" at something, is just opinion and nothing else, I won't comment on any of that, and it's irrelevant to this discussion you feel that way. You even underlined "will", like it's some sort of certainty. I guess I'm talking with a very passionate fan, so I'm not sure if I'll be losing my time continuing this conversation, since it's pretty much determined by now Halo Reach can't do no wrong in your eyes.

I never mentioned the word "monopolized", or implied such thing. And if I didn't it's because I know everything you said in that paragraph, and I reiterate: Modern Warfare Fever was just developing, so of course it didn't cut into Halo 3 sales that much.

The competition you list is nothing of the sort. Head to Head competition is a game that shares same genre and gameplay, in this case the MULTIPLAYER component being a major factor. All those games you mentioned Bioshock, ME, etc. first of all they weren't nearly half as popular as COD4 or Halo3. Second: they weren't online multiplayer shooters. I shouldn't have to mention a third, but some of them like ME and Bioshock were new franchises.

You must consider this : Just as Halo has built a fanbase since the original Xbox, other game series have also built very a very impressive fanbase in the last 3 years. A fanbase as large as Halo's shouldn't be expected to grow out of proportion, and it has already got two iterations this gen. Indirect strong competition will have even stronger fanbase support this time around against Halo Reach (compared to 3). Games like Fallout New Vegas, AC: Brotherhood, and Fable 3 will surely catch their share this holiday season.

Halo 3 gave a large and prolonged boost to 360 hardware sales, and a big part of that was because it was the first current-gen Halo. Halo Reach will indeed boost sales but not in the same way #3 did. You claim the 360 is having/will have its bigger year yet, I wouldn't know for sure, but still that's irrelevant. Why irrelevant? 'cause that doesn't mean the majority of those new owners will be a locked-Reach sale. Back in 2007, there were people jumping on a new 360 just for the Halo 3 fever. This time those fans will "double dip", there won't be as many 360s sold because of Halo Reach and you should see it in the attach ratio. The audience is just a lot more segregated this time, it's a simple fact.

I am not, by any means saying Halo Reach won't have monstrous sales and rave reviews, it should and very likely will. I think I'm being fair. after explaining my objective analysis, in not expecting too much of Halo Reach like beating its predecesor in LTD sales.

How reliable is VGChartz?

Of course sales will be very front heavy on Halo. Didn't Modern Warfare 2 sell 5 million week one? What is it at now 11.5? Almost half the sales were week one. Even Halo 3 had 3.8/11.1 of it's sales week one.

I never said Halo is the "best", I said one of the best. There is a significant difference, and it's very unlikely for a mainstream Halo title to score below 9/10.

As for this Modern Warfare Fever, I disagree. It's a good point, but if that were the case, why are Pre-orders so high? Why is Halo 3 still #2 in most played games online?

As for your multiplayer point, multiplayer is a big factor to Halo games, but not the sole factor. ODST still managed to sell 5.5 million without it's own multiplayer mode. You can argue that Fire-fight was multiplayer, but it had no matchmaking, and could only be done with friends on an invite only baisis. Thats like saying co-op makes up for online matchmaking, it doesn't. I'd say campaign and multiplayer play an equal role in terms of sales. Still, except for Modern Warfare, and The Orange Box, none of those games I mentioned had multiplayer. Thats still 2 vs. 2 on the multiplayer front, and 6 vs. 2 on the campaign front. 2007 had more competition.

As for non-direct competition, you mentioned Halo already having 2 interations this generation, but you talk down on competition if it has no multiplayer. How can you count ODST for a supporting point of yours, but for the same reasons ignore similar games for a counter example? ODST is not a proper interation, Halo: Reach only had 1 prior interation on the 360. I mean a lot of people got ODST for the Halo: Reach beta. Didn't you notice ODST sales jump in May?

Now to the point at hand, why would a second interation of Fallout, or Fable play a stronger hand at sales, but a second interation of Halo not? I really don't understand that one, and the fact that you mentioned Assassin's Creed Brotherhood to have stronger sales then a mainstream AC game is hilarious. Common, be serious.

Yes this fall Halo has some indirect competition, Gran Turismo, Fable 3, Fallout, LBP 2, DKCR, Kirby, but Halo 3 had lots of indirect competition in 2007. Forza 2, Project Gotham Racing 4, Rock Band, Warhawk, Ratchet & Clank, Guitar Hero 3 (the best selling one), Folklore, Super Mario Galaxy, etc.

I just think this competition excuse is silly. Pre-orders show us that this game will at least have the best start to a Halo game, and I just find it hard to beleive the game will sell super well at the start and then crash. Didn't happen to any other Halo, and I am just following trends. Every core Halo game has done better and better.

As for this "expansion period" you brought it up as a point for why Halo 3 sold well, and now that I have shown you that 360 is selling better now then ever before, you take back your point? You made a good point, just becaue it supports Halo Reach selling better then Halo 3, doesn't mean you should take it back.

And why are you allowed to poke at me for saying Halo Reach will be one of the best selling games, critisize everything I have to say as opinion, and then start talking about the market being segregated and thats a "fact." If the market were more segregated, why did Modern Warfare 2 outsell Modern Warfare 1?

As for consoles sales, thats not the discussion of the thread, but by bringing up the fact that 360 owners already have Halo 3 is a good point. Most Halo 3 owners probably enjoyed their game, enough to purchase another title a good 3 years after the original. Those Halo 3 fans talk to their friends about this awesome game and how fun it is to play it, and now that Halo: Reach is comming, new people will be able to jump into the action from the start.

Why do you think Modern Warfare 2 sold better then Modern Warfare 1? Many people missed MW1, and a lot of MW1 fans bought the sequel, thus sales improved.

Speaking of your segmentation of the market fact, Halo 2, the second interation of a Halo game, sold more copies then the original and had a higher attach rate. What makes you beleive Halo: Reach won't do the same? Even if the Halo: Reach attach rate is low, it's unlikely to become substantially lower then past Halo games, and even with only a 20% attach rate, the game will sell 12 million units by the end of 2011. Thats still more then Reach.

Anyway, at the end of your post you go on saying that you don't expect Halo: Reach to beat Halo 3 sales, but you still expect it to have monstrous sales. You didn't say you expect Halo: Reach to do worse then Halo 3. There is no substantial reason why Halo: Reach will sell less then Halo 3 except for the excuse of "Call of Duty Fever." Don't you think some gamers are sick of Modern Warfare after 6 installments and an arcade game? This point is merely a point of speculation, and it's ideology can be reversed. This is why I made a thread like this, to compare facts, and after Halo: Reach starts to sell, it can be accuratly matched to past Halo Installments. Until then you can only compare attach rates, and pre-orders, and your free to beleive Halo: Reach will undersell Halo 3, Michael Patchner does...lol

I don't expect Halo sales to "grow out of proportion." I expect the game to have a smaller install-base, then past Halo titles, but I still expect the game to follow trends. The trend is that Halo is a franchise growing in popularity. From Halo 1 to 3, the franchise almost doubled the number of copies used. Pre-orders are higher for Reach then any other game in the past, and the Microsoft branded console is exibiting peak popularity. Never has microsoft sold so many consoles before, and with the boost of the 360 Slim, 2010 is the peak year for 360.

The points you have mentioned are simply speculation. The statistics show otherwise. Take Halo 2 for example, it also had more competition then Halo 1 had, but it still sold better. Looking back, the only point you made is competition, and "call of duty fever." In my opinion, thats not a strong enough reason to offset all the positives Halo Reach has going for it.

Last point, you critisize me as someone who is a very passionate fan, so debating Halo sales may be a waste of time. I am a fan of the Halo franchise, I do not deny that, but it is by far one of my favorite games. I'm simply an educated person, who looks at the market and analyses data the best he can. It's very likely that Halo: Reach will be the best selling Halo game, and that is the only point I ever intended to make. The purpose of this blog was to estimate how well Halo Reach will do compared to other Halo's, and so far, judging from Pre-order data, attach rates, and hype (Last Halo in a trilogy vs. Last Halo by bungie), it's looking good. "Call of Duty fever" will hurt Halo, but Black Ops isn't even an Infinity Ward CoD.