One of the reasons I have PS3 peaking in Sept 2009 - August 2010 is September 2010.
PS3 is going to be down over a million units against 2009 in September I'd say:
It sold 1.7m units in Sept 2009. Right now, even assuming some software lifts its trending for 600-700k in Sept 2010. October will likely be down again by several hundred thousand to half a million. Also, PS3 sold 300k week for each week of November 2009. That probably won't happen until the second or third week of November. Down November usually means down December. So we should be done with worldwide PS3 increases for a while. Wii will be down in Oct-Dec as well. X360 probably up a bit (its mostly on hw changes and Kinect though - most of the big core games for X360 are sequels and won't push huge hw).
If you notice, PS3 is actually below 2008 levels heading into September (although probably flat next week), even though it is cheaper. Historically, price drops have less and less impact over time which is why PS3 probably hit its magic price point at $300, and may not top Sept 2009 - Aug 2010 even at $250 in 2011 (or even $200?).
Personally, I'm expecting Wii / PS3 price cuts in Spring 2011. Putting a price cut and Zelda in the same quarter in the middle part of 2011 would probably work pretty well, Wii seems to slow in April - Aug, so Zelda could push Wii for Apr and the price cut would keep pushing Wii for six months or so until the annual fall rush of titles arrives in Sept.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
