VGC user predictions

[Michael-5]

Seece said:

Michael-5 said:

I predict that the Wii will sell roughly 150 million units total because on a year to year comparision (except launch year due to PS2's unusual launch), the Wii is outselling the PS2 by a few million each year, and it seems to be following the same trends in sales (i.e. this will be the last year Wii sells crazy well, like 18 million)

I Predict that the PS3 will sell 75-80 million units because it's sales curve is almost identical the the PSP sales curve, and I only think PSP will top out around 70 million. PS3 will do a it better.

I predict that the 360 will sell 80-85 million units because It's sales curve is very slow and uneventful. This leads me to beleive the 360 will hold sales longer then the PS3 and at least keep the 5 million sales difference between the two consoles.

So that sums up to:

Wii: 47.6% - 49.2%

360: 26.2% - 27%

PS3: 24.6% - 25.4%

I doubt at this point Wii is going to reach 150 million, more like 130 mill.

I know Wii is having a bad year this year, but it's still following PS2 sales (year by year) closely, so I disagree, I'll show you why.

PS2 2001 - 16.07 mil vs Wii 2007 - 16.39 mil

PS2 2002 - 21.29 mil vs Wii 2008 - 24.39 mil

PS2 2003 - 19.76 mil vs Wii 2009 - 21.80 mil

PS2 2004 - 16.10 mil vs Wii 2010 - (currently) 7.96 mil. It can double over the holidays

PS2 2005 - 18.78 mil

PS2 2006 - 13.66 mil

PS2 2007 - 10.65 mil

PS2 2008 - 8.34 mil

PS2 2009 - 5.04 mil

PS2 2010 - (currently) 1.48 mil

I mean it's definatly possible that the Wii falls short of PS2 sales and sells 130 million, but as long as Nintendo can pull of great sales in 2011, I think the Wii will be set to be the best selling home console ever. It's going to have a long tail in terms of sales, even if a successor releases.

I also think the Wii can have a strong fall in 2011 because since 2008, the Wii has been a $200 console. Now it includes Wii Sports Resorts, the wii Motion Plus, and comes in black, but it's still $200. I bet it costs $50 to make the console now, and at best another $50 for the controllers. So as long as they drop the price next year, I think Nintendo is set. Also when 2012-2013 comes along and successor consoles come, a $99 Wii does look tempting.