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Let's not forget the NSMB Wii is the best selling Mario game on a console in japan since the original SMB. Donkey Kong may be able to do 2 mil if the marketing is right. Kirby looks like it will also break a million, how much after that i dont know. Certainly those games will be fairly big, and two 1mil sellers for the holidays is nothing to sniff at surely, especially when these series have been missing for quite a while. 

In comparison Donkey Konga on the GC(which wasnt really a main in the series) did half a million, and DK64 did more than a million, both on consoles far less popular, both have deviated from the originals. I think DK: returns will be quite big in japan, because it looks like the biggest DK since DK3.

For kirby, Kirby 64 did around 600k, while kirby air ride on the GC did 450k. Both numbers strong, but i think stronger effort has been put on this one. Also the DS iterations have done quite well to revive the series, so i would think 1 mil isnt out the question.