They're both over 900,000 from Jan 3 - Aug 15. Wii is like 30,000 ahead or something. Its actually quite similar to last year in Japan - they were within 40k of each other into July before Monster Hunter 3 came out for Wii.
Since the PS3 / Wii price drop they've sold nearly identically in Japan. Looking back, DS / PSP is actually pretty close from 2008 - 2010 in Japan - 9.9m to 7.5m or something so I don't think its too crazy to expect 2009 - 2011 or 2009 - 2012 to be similarly close given that 2008 on the DS / PSP side roughly equals 2010 on the Wii / PS3 side.
Sony probably isn't going to sell 1.2m PS3s between Aug 30 and Jan 2 like it did last year - so with Inazuma Eleven Wii / DKC Wii / Kirby Wii, whatever else may appear at the last moment and the catalogue Nintendo should probably be able to offset Gran Turismo 5 / Move and whatever else Sony may have and eke out another year ahead of PS3.
I wouldn't be too surprised if DKC Returns or the 3DS ends up going against the GT5 launch to try to offset it.
The good news is PS3 and Wii are still up over 2009 through August - and even with price cuts / Slim / FFXIII / NSMB Wii in 2009 they may be able to nearly reach 2009 levels. September is going to be way down for PS3 though in Japan, no question about it, as August was for Wii due to Monster Hunter 3.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
