Whatever you think of the hardware momentum Wii has, it isn't saturated in the USA - that is the comment that irks me - its 15 months ahead of PS2 by units and over the last year Wii has sold more in the USA than PS2 did in its absolute zenith 12 month period for hw, and similar figures to the PS2 sw zenith. Even without WS / WSR bundles Wii software units are damn near identical ltd to PS2 (and they'd be higher if Wii had a higher attach rate - but the LTD figure is there).
Beyond that, Wii reached 30m units at $200. Sony had cut the price of PS2 to $199 to $179 and then to $149, in addition to launching the PS2 Slim to reach 23m in the same timeframe it took Wii to reach 30m. It doesn't really matter anymore that the Wii has a lower attach rate in the USA - as long as it is outselling PS2 at comparable timeframes in the USA by anywhere from 25% (ltd) to 55% (over months 34-45 for both systems) serious volumes of software are going to be moved.
Wii is trending towards 55m-60m or something crazy in the USA (PS2 will get to 47m or so).
55m * 9 games per owner = 495m units sell through in the USA. 60m * 8.5 games per owner = 510m
PS2 in the USA is probably at something like 46m * 9.5 games sell through in the USA (440m or so), and Sony has said shipments to the Americas are over 500m units.
The reason Pachter gets annoyed is if publishers had figured out what to do on Wii by now, they'd have pushed Nintendo to 30-35% of sw units on Wii, but since they haven't really, Nintendo still has 40-45% of sw units on Wii. I told him not to worry in an email though - I reckon there are 20 games that will eventually go platinum launching for Wii between August and December - most of which are third party.
Ubisoft: Just Dance 2, Michael Jackson, Shaun White Skateboarding, Dance Workout
EA: The Sims 3, NBA Jam, Harry Potter, NFL Training Camp
Konami: Defjam, DDR, Deca Sports 3
Activision: DJ Hero 2, Icarly, Goldeneye, Rapalla, Spiderman, Call of Duty
Disney: Epic Mickey
Take Two: New Carnival Games
Sega: Sonic Colors
Bunch of other stuff will do ok too - Fifa, Madden, NHL games, Create, Need for Speed, Rabbits in Time, My Sims, etc. Key older stuff will continue to be big as well - NSMB Wii, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, EA Sports Active, Mario & Sonic, Just Dance.
Then you have DKC: Returns, Kirby, Wii Party, Pokepark, Metroid from Nintendo. Third parties should do very well on Wii this Christmas, as Nintendo is really only covering platformers / party games with its own stuff. Sports, Music, Fitness, Dancing, Party Games, Shooters, Racers, etc are all more open than in the past.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
