Its time to admit it. PS3 will NEVER overtake 360.

[Michael-5]

thismeintiel said:

Michael-5 said:

I agree with the statement of this thread for several reasons. Since last August PS3 saw stronger sales then the 360 primarily due to a PS3 Slim. The worldwide sales difference dropped from about 8.5 to 4.9 million since the PS3 Slim launched up until the point the 360S launched. However before that the 360's lead was growing, and only until recently (again due to the PS3 Slim), has the PS3 to 360 difference only ever been slightly lower then what it was when the 360 launched.

If PS3 were ever going to overtake the 360 it would have happened within the first couple years, but it didn't and a lot of people (especially on thiswebsite) have let that get to their heads.

The fact of the matter is PS3's recent burst of popularity was due to the PS3 Slim, not a price cut, not the games, not the fact that blu-ray is more popular. Now that the 360S has launched in Americas, and is a showing a stronger sales rate then the PS3 Slim had, the 360 will not only regain it's initial sales lead, but it will re-establish it's peak sales lead of 8.5 million, and will re-take the European and Other reagions.

Not only is the 360S showing slightly more popularity then the PS3 Slim, it came without a price cut. When the PS3 Slim came out, it came with a price cut, and the 360 followed with a price cut. The 360S is outperforming the PS3 Slim sales wise in North America without the handicap the PS3 Slim had. Not only that when the PS3 Slim was released 360 sales saw a slight booast in sales, but when the 360S was released, PS3 sales actually dropped slightly, and this thing has yet to be released in Europe!

PS3 is a great system, but so is the 360, and Microsoft really shows why they are such a powerful organization. Their market strategy was just amazing, they outsold the best selling brand of consoles for 10 years prior. Mind you Nintendo is kicking ass now, I am only comparing the HD consoles.

I predict that Microsoft will expand their lead to at least the 8.5 million difference they had prior to the PS3 Slim, most likely 10 million. I predict that the 360 will re-establish the pre-PS3 Slim 1.75 million difference in it's favor. However in the last few remaining years of this generation of gaming, I think the European region will see roughly balances sales between the 360 and PS3.

So I beleive that the 360 will outsell the PS3 until the next set of holidays. Not only that, but the Year end total console sales will be in favour of Microsoft for 2010 and 2011. However, I think by Fall 2011 PS3 will see roughly the same sales volume as 360, and most likely will experience stronger sales in 2012. By 2012 or 2013 I beleive all three compeditors will release new consoles, and 360 sales will severely drop, while PS3 sales will slowly dwindle (similar to how the PS2 is still selling units, but the PS3 won't do as well as PS2).

So in all honesty I do beleive PS3 sales will start to catch up in the long run. To the point where the PS3-360 sales difference will be smaller then the initial boost 360 experienced due to it's extra year on the market. However I really doubt that the PS3 will EVER outsell the 360. It's very rare in buisness for a compeditor that has had a weaker sales bracket for 3-4 years to outsell it's compeditor in total sales over the lifetime of the product. That means that since PS3 sold weaker then the 360 until the PS3 Slim, and only outsold the 360 due to the PS3 Slim, it's unlikely to ever outsell the 360. Even if it experiences stronger sales in a year or two, it's just too late to recover. The war is over, it's just a matter of time until the news spreads, and the pockets of soldiers are cleared.

P.S. Kinect, and Halo are very much likely to push more console sales then Move, and Gran Turismo. GT versus Halo is arguable since GT5 is the first full GT installment on the PS3, but just as many users missed Modern Warfare 1 and bought MW 2 in larger quantities, Halo Reach will outsell and attract more gamers then Halo 3. However the PS Move lacks supporting software, and (like Nintendo always promotes) it is less innovative then Kinect. People want something new, and PS Move is not that differenct from the Wii. Like I said it is also lacking software, Kinect launches with 15 titles, most exclusive, and some looking pretty damn awesome. Move has Resident Evil 5 Gold Edition, a SOCOM title (which could be an epic fail like the last one), and some sports game that no one can remember the name witout looking it up.

P.P.S. Spring sales also depend on exclusives, and Gears of War is not only a better rated game then Killzone, but it also sells about 2.5 times as many units. It will push 360's popularity just like God of War pushed the PS3 this spring.

Basically Microsoft is copying what Sony did that pushed Sony sales above 360 sales. Not only that, but it is taking advantage of a poor PS3 fall lineup (2009 and 2008 were far better for PS3), and blocking every big PS3 release. Kinect over Move, Halo over Gran Turismo, Gears of War over Killzone etc... If anything messes up for Microsoft, they can always do a price cut, and since a 360 is cheaper to produce then a PS3, they can do it more readily then Sony.

Wait.  So you're saying that the PS3 boost had nothing to do with the price-cut and the games.  You think if the Slim came out and was still $400, it would still have sold over 582K in the first week of release?  That's just nuts.  And noone is going to get a system, regardless of price and design, if there are no good games to play on it.  Past gens have showed us this.

How can you say that the 360 Slim is more popular than the PS3 Slim?  The 360 Slim debuted with 17K in Japan, the PS3 Slim with 152K.  In EMEAA, the PS3 Slim debuted at 265K.  Do you really think that the new 360 is going to match that?  Or are we going with the America=World thing?

You're putting a lot of faith in this new Slim.  I mean you honestly think the 360 will outsell the PS3 on the week of GT5's release?  Not if EU has anything to say about it.  Some have said they think the 360 will outsell the PS3 til the end of this year, but you honestly think it will outsell it til the end of next year?  I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed within a month's time when sales stabilize.

Obviously the PS3 Slim model boasted ales due to the price cut, my point was that it became more popular because of a Slim version. The point about the games was that, no particular game last fall boosted PS3 console sales.

Now worldwide, the 360 Slim sold about 60k less units in EMEAA/Americas, and 135k less in Japan. Now for Microsoft, Japan is essentially a lost market, and with only about 5 million PS3's sold there, it's also a very small market.

I can say that the 360 Slim is more popular then the PS3 Slim because the 360 Slim sold roughly as well as the PS3 Slim WITHOUT A PRICE CUT! That astonishing!

As for long term, I did state that I do beleive PS3 sales will eventually begin to catch up to 360's. I just don't feel it will overtake them. I beleive that for the next two months, the 360 Slim model alone with be enough to outsell the PS3, in September Halo Reach will keep 360 sales above PS3 sales for another month, and then Kinect comes out in October. After October, I have no clue what will happen. Either the 360 will sell equally well with the PS3, or better. Either way I beleive the 360 will have a sales difference of over 6 million over the PS3 by the end of the year. I think it can hold that difference until next summer.

I believe the big 3 will all release a console successor by 2013, with someone releasing a console in 2012. So in my opinion that gives Sony roughly 2-3 years to catch up to 360 sales. So lets say in Summer 2011 there is a console difference of 6 million units. That means that the PS3 will have to outsell the 360 by 2-3 million units a year to overtake it. I doubt that will happen, since the 360 and PS3 sell roughly 10 million units a year, that means that the PS3 will have to sell roughly 30% better then the 360 for 2-3 solid years. I just think that is unlikely. Possible, but unlikely