I honestly don't see software being the major selling points of this holiday season. The only real system sellers are Halo Reach and GT5. Halo Reach is third Halo FPS to be released this gen, whereas GT5 is the first full GT to be released this gen. GT5 has the best chance of selling more consoles.
However, I think the real difference will be Kinect vs Move and I see Kinect bringing in more new customers than Move. Move will likely sell to current PS3 owners quite nicely but I don't see it expanding the PS3 audience as it's just too similar to Wii. Whether Kinect delivers on promises or not, it's new and different. It's possible negative word of mouth could hinder sales if it doesn't fulfil expectations (technically), but at least for the holiday I see it as trumping PS3/Move.
There's also the newer 360s to take into account which again has kept things fresh.
