Which of the three will be first out of the gate next gen?

[Grey Acumen]

Nintendo will release a new console first. This won't be because Nintendo releases anything earlier than the others, but because Sony and Microsoft have already released about 4 SKUs each for this current console, and they're probably going to keep doing it to the point that it becomes uncertain when it stops being a new SKU and starts being a new console.

I've done thought exercises to figure out what Sony or Microsoft would need to be competitive with Nintendo again. so far I've just been drawing blanks. I can only see 2 ways for them to update in terms of motion sensing: 1) they resist because they don't want to admit Nintendo's success, and as a result they implement halfass motion sensing basically like what PS3 has, or 2) they admit to Nintendo's success and implement a control style that is pretty much exactly the same. Admittedly, they may decide to simply NOT implement motion sensing at all, but I just don't see that lasting over the next 5 years in which the Wii's controls will grow more defined and polished.

When I do the same exercise for Nintendo, it's much easier to see what should be done to repeat the success of the Wii in the new console. When Nintendo finally does release a new console, the WiiII, the controls will pretty much be exactly the same, but everything will have updated technology, faster processor, even heavier video memory, and probably a hard drive of reasonable size, or support for USB flash drives, etc.
The speaker in the Wiimote will be much higher quality. The camera in the Wiimote will be able to sense infrared, but will be of high enough quality to be used as a straight camera as well for PSeye style games, but combined with infared sensors as demonstrated in Johnny Chung Lee's videos. The Nunchuck will have rumble, and also a built in Microphone which will make voip easier, as well as kareoke games or incantation games, like what was originally envisioned for Harry Potter.
The Wiimote will still use bluetooth, which means that old Wiimotes can still be used to play regular Wii games on the WiiII, or possibly even new WiiII games, provided they don't . Both Wiimote and Nunchuck will have a second accelerometer to allow for calculating the spin access and allowing for complete 1 to 1 movement.
By the time the new console is released, it will likely be reasonable for Nintendo to include HD output, and like what the 360 can do now, it will be able to be hooked up to a laptop as a cheap way of playing on a highdef screen.

The real key to this is that the WiiII may or may not be backwards compatible with Gamecube games, but it absolutely will be compatible with all regular Wii games. Because of the type of library that Nintendo will be building over the next 5 years, this will be a massive list of titles that Nintendo will have right out of the starting gate. Even if Microsoft or Sony decide to implement motion controls, they won't be able to compete with the already developed list of Wii games which already have motion controls implemented. It'll basically be a repeat of how the PS2 rode in on the success of the PS1.