| alfredofroylan said:
"Wii software sales were down 19% year-over-year and DS software sales were down 13%, while PS3 software sales were up 58% and Xbox 360 software sales were up 29%. We think this is remarkable, given growth in the Wii hardware installed base of 44% and growth in the DS installed base of 33% over the last 12 months. In contrast, the PS3 installed base is up 60% and the Xbox 360 installed base is up 32% over the same period. Software sales growth mirrored hardware unit growth for both the PS3 and Xbox 360, but sorely lagged hardware unit growth for the Wii and DS. In our view, this indicates that Nintendo’s customers either are not finding enough software to satisfy their needs, or need less software than the typical Sony or Microsoft customer. ...software attach rates for the Wii continue to decline, and publishers appear to be reluctant to support the console as broadly as the other two, notwithstanding its huge lead in installed base. We think that Nintendo will continue to dominate sales on its console, with its first-rate lineup of games, but fear that other publishers have prematurely abandoned the very large Wii audience, and see further year-over-year software sales declines for the Wii for the next several months. These declines will make year-over-year industry sales growth difficult to achieve." - Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-being-prematurely-abandoned-by-publishers-says-pachter/ ... no? |
Love how he answers his own question.
First, I want to say YoY is not that good of a measurment. It's a good, cheap way to tell short term trends and seasonal changes. The problem is it is far over used. YoY does not take into account months before and after the set dates and doesn't give you the whole picture. These analyst need to start using Exponential Smoothing and Autoregression if they want to start making good analysis.
The other thing is Patcher misses the fact that Wii and DS software dominate the top 10 (and 20) charts. NSMBWii just sold 15 million worldwide. It looks like Wii owners do buy lots of software, but just get trash. No one produces what they want. I am starting to think Patcher is in bed with these third party companies. This quote is a great reason not to make games on the Wii. They say that despite growth, they don't buy games. He even goes to say they buy less games then XBox 360 and PS3 users. (BTW, which is false. These are precents, not actual numbers. All it says is that sales for DS and Wii games are lower than 2009 in the same month and XBox and PS3 sales are up over the same time last year. They don't say who is selling more over, which is most likely Nintendo. I think this is Patcher trying to bend the new).
I think they are changing their strategy. It use to be that they say the Wii was going to fall and the bubble was going to burst. While the Wii did decline after 2008, it is still doing better than the others and is even up YoY in the US. So, they can no longer use the Wii is a fad. They also used Wii HD. Why make a Wii game when the Wii HD will come. Why make a Wii game when it's just a fad. All of these are just ploys so that third parties don't have to make Wii games. Investors demanded 3rd parties make Wii games, so these exist so they can tell them they shouldn't make Wii games. We'll see how long it takes investors to wake up, but I think it will be the reports for the next quarter or two.
