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Whilst I think Move looks better for the traditional gamer, I still think Kinect will sell better:

  • MS seem to be marketing the hell out of Kinect, Sony & Move, not so much
  • Casual software: Games are marketed to a large demographic
  • There are 5 million more 360 consoles out there than PS3s so it already has a userbase advantage
  • The voice recognition and lack of controller will seem "novel" for a while

Having said this I don't think either will be a huge success. They're both priced way too high and the other problem with Kinect is the launch software; most of the titles are in the same genres (sports, fitness, party) meaning they'll all be competing against each other, not to mention the lack of core titles. Whilst Move looks to have more diverse software, very few games actually look to need Move and it's simply too much like Wii.