Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

[Michael-5]

Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

Final install base of PS1 and PS2 is irrelevant, because the back ends of those generations were occupied by GT 2 and 4, while 1 and 3 are the games that sold better, releasing to smaller install bases.  Sales of GT 1 and 3 were probably cut off somewhat by releases of 2 and 4 respectively.  I doubt GT6 will be released for PS3, or if it is, it will be at least 3 years after GT5 is released, giving GT5 ample time with a sizable install base.  And looking at the sales of Prologue and considering how vastly improved GT5 will be -- over Prologue, and yes, over Forza 3 -- there's really no reason to think GT5 won't reach 8 million. 

GT sells mostly to casuals?  Try, and ultra hardcore racing fans.  You need to meet up with the 360 fan on this site who just today posted that GT5 will fail because it's not hardcore enough for the hardcore fans that have traditionally bought GT games.... between the two of you, GT5 can't win it seems.  Until it does.

That second comment is insulting. I have a PS3, and a 360. I am far less biased then most, anyway...

Instal base is very important to racing games like Gran Turismo. GT1,2, and 4 all sold roughly 10 million units, the only one to stick out is GT3 which sold almost 15 million units. GT3 came out a year after the PS2 launched and by that time PS2 already had 20 million owners, with a stronger sales rate then PS3 and 360. Initially it sold moderatly well, worse then Forza 3, but in the 5 years until GT4 came out, it's sales accumulated, and by 2006 PS2 was a roughly 100 million unit console. PS3 will never see figures that high, and an attach rate of 15% (GT3's attach rate, the highest of all the Gran Turismo titles), is far more realistic then a 20-25% attach rate many PS3 owners on this website seem to beleive Gran Turismo 5 will somehow get.

The fact of the matter is no racing game, EVER, has had an attach rate that high with the exception of Mario Kart (30% ish). It doesn't matter it this game gets 10/10, it's just not going to sell that well.

You also bring into the subject of Gran Turismo 6, and the duration of time GT5 has to accumulate sales. It's 2010 now, the 360 came out in 2005, and PS3 in 2006. Until this generation the average lifespan of a console was 5-6 years. Now this generation is obviously going to outlast prior generations, but by how much? Wii sales are starting to come down now, and thats the leader in sales this gen. We're already over the hill, many analysts estimate that the next generation of consoles will arrive by 2012-2013. So nevermind the 5 years GT3 had to sell 15 million units, GT5 will at most get 3 before the next generation of consoles arrive.

Now as for your insulting comments, why do you have to mention GT5 being superior to Forza 3? Thats just a very biased and fanboyism response. Why should I bother responding to your comments when you clearly have a heavy bias towards Sony. I mean look at your sig, it's comparing PS3 games over 90 metascore, vs 360 (P.S. More 360 games have 9.5 then PS3 :P).

As for this ultra hardcore crowd of GT5 fans, that probably ammount to 2 million people at most, I only commented that most of the sales will appeal to casual gamers. This is why GT5 is more comparable to Mario Kart instead of God of War. Do you not think Mario Kart doesn't have it's ultra hardcore fans? I bet it has more then Forza and GT combined.

Now your last paragraph just shows severve bias and ignorance. I have both consoles, and all I am saying in these comments is that GT5 will not sell as well as most people on this website think. 8 million is reasonable, and I might add a bit generous. 10 million is very difficult on a console with only 35 million units out now.