Reasonable said:
Good post, but I'd disagree on GT5. Look at GT5:P sales - they are completely in line for GT5 to sell in line with it's predecessors assuming interest in the title hasn't wanned. For certain titles install base isn't important - for example Halo - and I see no evidence that GT5 isn't in that bracket. It will sell and if they fanbase don't have a PS3 then they'll buy one - same as when main series Halo titles launch. I think you're on the wrong track looking at install base for GT5. In actuallity, I think the PS2 install base became so high it's a mistake to overly attribute it to most sales of franchises on the platform. The only way GT5 will sell less is if interest in the series has waned - hard to call but GT5:P sales and interest were high and it remains a hyped title so I'm going to take the view interest remains high enough for 10M- or if enough of the audience is on a 360 and don't want a PS3 now - this is possible but again I'm not convinced. Right now, looking at the evidence - GoW3 looks on track to match previous titles with a much smaller install base for example - and in particular GT5, I think it's very likely it will sell very, very well indeed. |
Good point, but I still disagree, for two main reasons.
1. The majority of Gran Turismo sales are to Casual gamers. So it's sales are more relatable to Mario Kart then God of War, and well lets look at the figures. There are 70 million Wii's and Mario Kart Wii sold roughly 21 million units, and there are 21 million Gamecubes. and Mario Kart: Double Dash sold roughly 7 million units. 3.5 times as many consoles, and 3 times as many sales. Gran Turismo is part of the same trend, GT3 and 4 outsold GT1 and 2 by roughly the same ratio of console and game sales, where PS2 was the better selling console. If this were the only factor GT5 would only sell roughly 4 million units, and I'm pretty sure this will outsell GT5 Prologue. So there are other factors involved.
2. Gran Turismo 1 and 3 are the best selling Gran Turismo titles in the franchise, and they were released early into their respective consoles lifetime. The reason these games sold so well is because they had time to accumulate sales. Mainstream racing titles, such as Gran Turismo and Forza, do not initially sell that well, but continuously sell at a moderatly high sales rate, and over time, it accumuates. Don't beleive me? Take a look yourself, Forza 3 is selling roughly as well (if not better) then GT3, and in a year that only ammounts to 3 million sales (GT3 finished with nearly 15 million. Gran Turismo 2 and 4 sold roughly 10 million units and were released about 5 years into the consoles lifespan. PS3 has been around since 2006, so if it's sales history were to match any prior Gran Turismo title, they would match GT2 and 4 sales. However, assumeing there are roughly 40 million PS3's by the end of 2010, this would mean that 1 in 4 PS3 owners would have to buy Gran Turismo 5. I severly doubt this will happen because except for Mario Kart, no racing game has ever had an attach rate so high.
So my estimates of 6-8 million total sales are completly reasonable, if you ask me.
You cannot compare Gran Turismo sales with God of War because God of War is mainly a game that appeals to a hardcore audience. Halo which appeals to both hardcore and casual gamers, sales rates are directly related to the number of consoles it is available on, so your comparision with Halo only supports my arguement. (Halo 1, 5 million, Halo 2, 8 million, Halo 3, 11 million, and for each Halo there were more X-Box's present).
As for Gran Turismo popularity going down, that is also an important factor to consider. Many hardcore racing game fans (such as myself), must have purchased a 360 for the sheer number of 360 exclusive racing titles (Forza Motorsport 2 and 3, Project gotham Racing 3 and 4, Test Drive Unlimited, Race Pro, etc). Older Gran Turismo titles were released close to launch, GT5 took a long time to develop. Also, compeditors for Gran Turismo (namely Forza Motorsport and Need for Speed), have improved drastically in game quality since the PS1 and PS2 days. Many of Gran Turismo sales may have been transfered over. Good point, and to me this is a third reason why Gran Turismo 5 will not sell anywhere nearly as well as prior installments.
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