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TheSource said:

When he says "refresh" he probably means something ala the PS3 Slim, which we've never really seen Nintendo do. Usually, Nintendo just goes with new colors or price cuts.

But why mention the Wii specifically when a rumored X360 Slim is just around the corner? I think he means a hardware upgrade,  a "Wii 2", because else he wouldn't mention MS and Sony's next gen plans at all.

"We note that Nintendo is widely expected to deliver a Wii refresh in 2011, well before Sony and Microsoft come to market with new platforms
, although this is unlikely to represent the launch of a new generation."

So what does he mean with the last sentence? I think he means that the general public won't see a Wii 2 as a true start of the next gen because he doesn't expect the Wii 2 to be significantly more powrful than the X360 and PS3, and thus it won't make publishers migrate to a next gen yet.