Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

[Michael-5]

To MARCUSDJACKSON

Good response, and by all technicallities our opinions differ, but we are not professional industry analysts, nor do we know what Sony and Microsoft have kept secret until E3. I beleive that the PS3 outselling the 360 for one holiday season is not enough to beleive that Sony will continue this trend and sell more PS3's then Microsoft sells 360's. Sony had an amazing marketing strategy, a price cut, a PS3 Slim, and Uncharted 2 among other great games. They also managed to keep their lead. However Microsoft hasn't really responded to this, except for a few great exclusives Microsoft has not really done anything to directly retaliate against Sony's killer sales since last fall. I personally beleive that the Natal, Halo: Reach (among others), a price cut, and a rumoured platnium Live service, as well as a Slim 360 model will be Microsofts retaliation this fall, and I think the Natal will push 360 sales up. However we will only know for certain in half a year. Until then.

 

To GreyianStorm

That article you gave me was for February sales, and I never questioned PS3/360's past sales. I just mentioned that I do not feel Sony can keep it up.

As for media driven rumours, there is also a rumour that the Natal will cost $80. I am not saying to beleive in every rumour, however with Microsoft searching for engineers to make a smaller cooler motherboard, and various other hints at a Slim 360, it is something you should consider for future sales estimates. Natal/Move prices are simply speculations, with no supporting evidence, so those rumours should not be taken seriously. Regardless we will probably find out about those peripherals in a week.

 

To Pizzahut451

Nice name. Nintendo is making a lot of money per console, I know that. At launch they were making $50 per console, and this was confirmed by Nintendo and was shown in various IGN/VGChartz articles, and I beleive Bonus round on Gametrailers. Too lazy too look up that now. As for the Wii costing $100 to produce now, I beleive I heard that from Michael Patchner, and it kind of make sence. What is the Wii, but a slightly upgraded Gamecube, with Wii-motes?

I ignored PSN profits because compared to XBL profits they are minimal. Also talks about PSN service improving go hand in hand with XBL service improving. So comparing these two would be hard. Both improve profits, I don't argue that.

PS1 sold most of it's units at $199, but it's price dropped to $199 reletivly quickly. The PS1, PS2, and PS3 all show peak sales around the 3-5 year point, regardless of price, and I think thats a bigger factor to consider. New consoles don't sell as well because people wait for games and a price cut. Old consoles don't sell well because people know a successor is comming. A cheaper price is better, but I feel the age of the console is more relevant. Also due to inflation, a $199 PS1 is not relatable to a $199 Wii. So you can't really say that $199 is some magical price that makes consoles all of a sudden more popular. As for the $199 Arcade 360 outselling the Elite 360, 80% of 360 sales go to the mid range Pro edition, which isn't $199, so :P.

MGS4 rumour to me stuck me as some rumour that was spread in the forums, and only officially fueled by that MGS4 for Ipod teaser last year. So it's a bit different from the 360 Slim. As for PS3 Slim, I never heard rumours about that, except for forum rumours (Since there were PS1 and PS2 Slims).

As for Gran Turismo 5, I don't think it will sell as well as many PS3 fans (not fanboys, some of you guys are smart) think. Gran Turismo 1-4 have sold either close to, or over 10 million units each, but look at how much of an instal base they had. 135 million PS2's, and over 100 million PS1's! Thats like a 10% attach rate. Halo 1 sold 5 million units on a console with only 24 million units, thats over a 25% attach rate. Halo 2 sold 8 million units, thats a 33% attach rate. Halo 3 sold 11 million units, thats again over 25%. If Reach does as good as any other Halo, thats going to be 15 million units, more if the attach rate is closer to Halo 2. PS3 is not as popular as PS1 or PS2, and with a 10% attach rate, I feel you should only expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell more then 4 million units. Obviously it will do better then that since more "hardcore" gamers play PS3, but I doubt it will sell over 10 million units in the lifetime of the PS3. Thats my opinion, and the last paragraph gives a very logical and rational reasoning for it. I may be completly wrong, but I have a reasonable reason to beleive the way I do. Also GT1, and GT3 came out reletivly early into the PS1 and PS2 lifetime. They had time to accumulate sales, where GT5 is comming out mid-life. I bet a significant portion of race game fans (including me), have switched to Forza, which has improved in quality drastically since Forza 1.

As for Call of Duty (I also mentioned FIFA and PES for PS3), It probably won't boast sales that much, but it will slightly. I mentioned those games as a part of a list of games that would boast sales, at the end of a few great exclusives. I think new people buying consoles would prefer to play CoD, PES, FIFA, on the console their friends play it on, and since COD sales are significantly larger on 360's (due to the 360's american popularity), and vica versa for PES/FIFA, it will slightly boast sales. Not much, but just a nudge.

As for Halo Wars, it is a full Halo game, but it doesn't appeal to the more casual FPS Halo fanbase, where GT5 Prologue is of similar construct as Gran Turismo and will appeal to the average GT fan. So in regards to your prior arguement were Halo Reach is the 4th 360 Halo title, and Gran Turismo 5 is the first PS3 Gran Turismo title, you kind of have to include Prologue for the same reason you include Halo Wars. As for console pushing, yes GT5 probably will push more consoles then Halo Reach simply because it's the first GT5 game, however Halo Reach will still be a big pusher because not everyone got a 360 after Halo 3. I mean GT4 still pushed PS2's. Were going to have to wait and see on this one, but in my mind both Reach and GT5 are equal in terms of comparisions as console pushers. Arguing which will be better is pointless and leads no where.

ODST was an overglorified demo. A great demo, but it wasn't the 9.5 game Halo 1-3 were. It was something that was made to satisfy the Halo fans until a proper sequel was released. You know until the game actually came out, I wasn't sure if ODST was going to be a DLC for Halo 3, or a standalone game. It had a larger fanbase, but it wasn't a proper Halo game. This is the same reason why GT4 Prologue sold less then GT3, on a larger fanbase. Not a proper sequel.

Now you mention Halo 3 will remain the best selling Halo of this generation because it was the first Halo of this generation. Let me remind you that Halo 2 outsold Halo 1 on the X-Box. Modern Warfare 2 outsold Modern Warfare 1. There I just proved your theory can be falsified.

So my concluding remark on GT5 is that, the PS3 has a much smaller instal base then PS1 and PS2 (about a third). So it's very reasonable to beleive it will sell significantly less then Gran Turismo 1-4. Also Gran turismo 5 has a proper compeditor now (Forza 3), which will definatly steal many sales, and unlike GT1, and 3, GT5 is being released late into the consoles life, and this will cut sales. This is why I beleive the game will sell 6-8 million units.

Being the first Gran Turismo of the generation is not a valid reason as to why Gran Turismo 5 will outsell GT4, using Halo 1 and 2, and Modern Warfare 1 and 2 as counter examples. A more directly relatable counter example would be Forza 2 and 3. Although Forza 3 has sold less units overall, Forza 3 has outsold Forza 2 on a weekly basis from launch. So :P

I do my research, I don't just make wild accusations. I own Forza 1-3, Gran Turismo 1-4, and both a 360 and a PS3. This is how I feel, and I have given realistic data to back me up. So people, don't act shocked just because someone here is more confident of 360 sales over PS3 sales. Listen and learn.