X360 only 630k more units than PS3 for the whole of 2007

[Sullla]

krik said:

We all consider 2007 to be a big failure for the PS3 but with a $500-600 price for 10 months out of the year and "no games" (360 owners want us to believe this one, rofl) it's amazing to see that the 360 could only sell a mere 10% more for a full year.

This is really pretty disingenous. The topic creator is essentially saying, "since the PS3 was only outsold by the 360 by 10% in 2007, it's guaranteed to outsell the 360 in 2008!" Stop and think about that for a minute. The argument is that because the PS3 didn't lose "too badly" this year, it's definitely going to win next year. Sorry, but I'm not jumping on that bandwagon...

In truth, all of the consoles are going to sell pretty much the same in 2008 as they did in 2007. At most, sales will fluctuate ~25% up or down for each one. (I don't expect any console to sell less next year, but no one is going to see massive sales increases either.) It's pretty clear how the 360 sells by now; it should be right around 8m next year, same as this year or possibly a very slight increase. The PS3 will do better next year (it can't possibly be as bad as this past year, right?) but won't come anywhere close to doubling sales. Remember, we've yet to see any proof that it can sustain sales over the long haul. Sales went up in November, but was that due to the price cut, or just seasonal holiday increases? It's too early to tell. Europe is showing positive signs, Japan and America considerably less so. I'd be very surprised if the PS3 sold more than 8-9m next year though.

The Wii still has room for some decent growth next year, but ONLY because supply constraints have prevented us from getting an accurate reading of its true sales level. We still have yet to see true stabilization set in, in other words. Once it stops selling out in America, we'll be able to make more accurate long-term predictions for it as well.