Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

[pizzahut451]

Michael-5 said:

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

Smashed said:

Darth Tigris said:
I really don't think hardly anyone on this site really understand the potential of holiday 2010 for the 360. Many here have forgotten the situation in 2008 when the PS3 was only 6 million away and had a ton of momentum because of a 2007 price cut and huge marketing push. Then came September, the 360 dropped from $279 to $199 for the Arcade SKU and, before you knew, the lead was back up to 8 million.

You see that, folks. The 360 lead was down to around about 5 million and some 8 months later it was back up to 8 million.

Do you hear me? Ok, let me slow it down for you.

Sept 08 - May 09 - 360 lead went from 6 mil to 8.4 mil (360 price cut)
Sept 09 - May 10 - 360 lead went from 8 mil to 5 mil (PS3 price cut)

Its a pattern that repeats and we're on the PS3 growth cycle this time. Come this fall we WILL have Halo Reach, Fable III and 'Project Natal'. We may also have a Slim and a price cut. So what will that likely mean for the game industry? See pattern above. Rinse and repeat.

For the PS3 to truly secure 2nd place, we'd have to see something DRASTICALLY different than the pattern that has already been established this gen.

You completely IGNORED the games coming out for PS3 this year, didn't you?

You want to talk moving consoles? Talk Gran Turismo 5.

As if Halo Reach will sell MONSTER consoles, right on there bud. Most people who are getting Reach already owned a 360 to begin with, it will only get it's boost off bundles. Fable III will move some consoles, how much do you think a Fable game is really going to move, is the game going to be ground breaking?

You completely also ignored one of Sony's biggest things this year, Move.

Or did you just forget them?

living in the past are we Darth Tigris? current trends will decide this race. im sure sony will only counter a price drop. although it may not be wise. hey everybody. it's time to play chess. the board is the 2010 holiday season. heres my take on it.

holiday season console sells

PS3 10m

360 7m

 

 

In 2009, when Sony's price cut/PS3 Slim happened Microsoft also had a price cut, and a selection of great titles too. Halo 3: ODST, Left 4 Dead 2, a 360 favoured Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Mass Effect 2 (I know it came out in January), Forza Motorsport 3, and Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City. Still it's sales suffered. Sony just had more, the PS3 Slim, Uncharted 2, FF XIII in Japan, and a PS3 favoured FIFA and PES. The key factor, the PS3 Slim.

In 2008, when Microsoft had a significant sale gain, Sony had some great fall titles too. Resistance 2, LittleBig Planet, a PS3 favoured PES, and FIFA, and Motorstorm: Pacific Rift. However Microsoft had a lot more, Gears of War 2, Left 4 Dead, a 360 favoured Call of duty: World at War, and Fallout 3, and Fable 2.

Sales fluctuate! Darth Tigris is making a very valid and logical point. This Fall Microsoft will not only sell more 360's then Sony will sell PS3's, but I think it will increase it's lead back to 8 million by next fall.

Yes PS3 has Move, but listen to Michael Pachner. It's probably going to sell 1:5 as many units compared to Microsofts Natal. Also Microsoft will most likely price the Natal under $100 to compete with the Move. Gamewise, Microsoft has more, but Sony had an amazing spring. Sony has Gran Turismo 5, and hopefully the Last Guardian too. Microsoft has Halo: Reach, Fable 3, and probably a Left 4 Dead 3 (lol!). However the key factor is Natal, and a 360 Slim. Thats what ushed Sony ahead last year, I don't understand how it won't push 360 up this year.

Comparing Halo and Gran Turismo as console pushers, is just fanboyism. So I'm just going to name some key factors. Both franchises sell games always getting 9.5/10 or higher. There already is a Halo 3 on 360, so it's a valid arguement to think it won't push too many newcomers to the 360 since they came by in 2007. However, there was also a GT5 Prologue.

Another valid arguement is stating the sales factor with respect to the amount of consoles sold. Halo 2 sold 8 million units on a system with only 24 million sold. Thats 1/3. GT4 was the best selling GT game which sold 15 million units on a system with 140 million units. Thats a little over 1/10. Halo 3 sold 11/40 which is 1/4, still good. So following this logic, GT5 may only sell 4-6 million units. Thats not that much more then Forza Motorsport 3, so is this a big deal? We will see later in the year.

So logically, 360 will outsell the PS3 this fall for the same reasons 360 outsold the PS3 in 2007, 2008, and for the same reasons PS3 outsold the 360 in 2009. The real question is, will it continue to outsell 360's over PS3's in 2011? Depends if Natal takes off,if Natal is as popular as the Wii....well then Sony will never catch up.

I lovethe PS3, 360, Wii, DS, and PSP (not PC :(), and I am just looking at this reasonably.

P.S. MarcusDJackson, current trends change, until last August the 360 was consistantly outselling the PS3. That changed right?

The only continuous trend is that, the console with the better games/upgrades will lead the holiday in terms of sales. 360 Slim plus Natal beat the PS3 Move, and arguably Halo, Gears, L4D3, Fable 3, and a 360 favoured CoD are better then GT5, The Last Guardian, and a PS3 favoured PES, and FIFA. 2006-2008 that was, technically Wii, but in this arguement 360, and 2009 was PS3. One PS3 won fall battle does not win the console war

Any facts that support that statement?

COD is on PS3 as well, and it never boosted any hardware sales on either xbox 360 or PS3, GT brand is bigger than Halo brand, Halo Reach is 4th Halo on xbox 360, GT5 is 1st GT on PS3 and i dont know if L4D3 and Gears 3 release dates are even confirmed for holiday '10.

 

Also, PS3 has proven lots of times that userbase doesnt really matter with its sequels outselling some of the PS2 prequels. GT5 demo alone sold 4 million!!!!! YES, a DEMO.

 

And i really think you shouldnt listen to michael patcher. He's wrong in about 75% of the case.