2010 Sales and Market Share Update to May 15th.

[drkohler]

kowenicki said:

drkohler said:

kowenicki said:

It will lose about 650k in just two weeks:  weeks ending 7th Sept and 14th Sept

then around 50k to 60k per week I reckon for around 7 or 8 weeks... but then you are into pre holiday numbers.... anything could happen.

so they will lose between 1 and 1.3m of whatever improvement they have garnered by then.

Depends on the influence of Move. If it works, it could soften the drop by the slim introduction quite a bit..(and Sony seems to think so, given they manufacture 2mio units more this fj

the slim sold nearly 1 million units in a 2 week period at the start of september...

Move wont do anything remotely like that... nowhere near.

That is not relevant in the long term (and nobody at Sony thinks that Move will level out the slim launch). Of course the gap will be big in the first two weeks, when everybody "had" to get the slim last year. However, if move pushes up demand by say, 10%, over all weeks into fj 2011, then we look at somethng like:

up to September +2mio

slim influence the first weeks +move influence -1.5mio

move influence after that + 1mio

These are my rudimentary estimates, which would give a +1.5mio units sale increase (again, Sony thinks more optimistic with +2mio units manufactured).