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The Wii has the curve of the winners, just between the PS2 and the DS :

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=DS&reg3=Japan&weeks=55

Though it will unlikely have the same christmas as the DS, which sold 300k, 400k, 600k and 400k on the four weeks of it's second christmas.