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Halo 3 odst did 2.2mil first week and that was with a bit of negativity around it. I think this will do 5mil week one if it has positive buzz. While install base doesn't proportionally increase sales, your high if you think 10mil-40mil install base won't effect sales. I won't be too surprised if lifetime is lower though unless the game has a good campaign. I know a number of people who don't play xbox online and they buy games for their campaigns. I'm sure there are many more.