Has the Wii peaked? More than likely. Selling over 24 million in one year, probably won't be reached again, although it's not like not reaching that is bad. In 2009 it of course did over 21 million.
I think people look at this thing too vaguely. Technically PS2's biggest year was 2002, which in its timeline is equivalent to Wii's 2008. But just like Wii's 2009, PS2's 2003 was still a very strong year. Having a peak year doesn't mean death. Normally you have your peak level somewhere early in the cycle. Obviously something is going to be hotter when it is "fresh" rather than old. The point is, after your peak year can you continue to sell well. Wii was able to show that in 2009 and we'll see how it goes in 2010.
Of course there is the other case which may be a reason people look at Wii a little less and that is the DS. I want to openly state to everyone, DS IS not the case. This is selling like no other product in the video game industry ever has. Don't look to DS's sales as a comparison for Wii's sales. DS is something I can really no longer predict just by the randomness of its sales. I've never seen a case where something can sell 30 million in one year and then come back and match that the next year. Just comparatively, anything to the DS doesn't look as hot.
As for Wii in 2010, it is really hard to tell how it will do, but if anything is different it is Nintendo. During 2008 and half of 2009, Nintendo was a very fierce force on the market. They simply let their name speak for itself. Was very different from the 2007 approach they had. I have no idea if that correlates to Wii's slipping in the summer (I don't think it did) but obviously once Wii Sports Resort came out you saw a Nintendo like back in 2007 rather than 2008 and first half 2009.
Looking at 2010, we are still seeing this very aggressive company on the market. Steadily pushing out "limited editions" of the consoles around the world, namely the black Wii. Introducing new controller colors on the market, bringing the classic controller pro to the market, and then adding Netflix to the system in Spring. I expect this trend to continue, with more Wii channels announced soon, more controller colors, and of course a wide arrange of system colors. Not to mention, I expect not just the Virtality sensor to be shown off at E3 but of course another peripheral to be "bundled" with a big game either late this year or next year.
Other aggressive moves have been with their only 1st party lineup and 3rd party games. Galaxy 2, Metroid: Other M, and Sin and Punishment 2 for the first half which are 3 games I expect them to push. Also, this leaves an entire second half open for big fall and holiday products. Out of all the 3 console makers, Nintendo is definitely setting themselves up to have the biggest 1st party lineup in the first half and potentially second half. Second half opens up for the vitality sensor game, other casual title (possible peripheral bundle), Xenoblade and Last Story, and then either Pikmin 3 or Zelda Wii as the big core holiday game. More than likely it'll be Zelda. Although if it isn't Zelda, Pikmin may not be a big enough title and might have Nintendo "hurry up" another project they have going on for that slot with Pikmin 3 (this is purely speculative on my part btw).
Then of course the 3rd party aspect, with Nintendo really pushing 3rd party games. Big moves for Japan of course include Xenoblade and Last Story, which I assume to be Nintendo's big first half games for the Japanese wii owners. For the later half, Zelda and potentially DQX. Of course it has been Nintendo pushing Japanese games in the West. Monster Hunter Tri of course is the big first half game, and obviously going to bring Samurai Warriors 3 over. I expect some more in that vein to be announced at E3, although I'm still waiting for Nintendo to really start doing some of these things with western developers as well. Obviously they have good relations recently with Capcom, Sega, and Square but I think they should start expanding their view to some big western developers, NAMELY Disney. Might see that offered up for Epic Mickey. Note, I don't think they are doing this out of pity, but of course money. Not to mention better marketing point.
So Nintendo really has a strong 2010 lined up, and if my speculation even has a little bit come true, the later half will be just as strong as the early half. As always, Nintendo needs to get over this shortage in America and obviously start getting some of those big games out in Japan to get some distance over the competition. I don't think Nintendo will be able to beat the peak year 2008, but if Nintendo plays their cards right, AND gets Zelda out this year, then 21 million can be reached again. Of course a pricecut might help, though I don't really see too many more buyers buying it at $150 as they probably would have bought it at $200.
