i think both natal and move will sell well, but the wii will continue to outsell them both. The move will attract costumers who like the wii controls, but don't really love nintendo games, the only reason to get a wii for the non casual crowd, and natal will attract customers who may have enjoyed the PS2 eyetoy or just want to try something new as the eyetoy didn't have a lot of support while natal, at least at the beginning will.
I still think the wii will dominate the casual market. The only reason natal has a better chance with casuals then the move is because microsoft could feasibly make a 360 arcade with natal bundle cheaper then the wii for people who just want the cheapest thing and natal will definitely be much more heavily advertised then the move.
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