Well I don't know how it could do worse than MP2 vs Halo 2. MP vs Halo wasn't too bad, MP did around 40-45% of Halo sales I think. MP2 was more like 20%. I could see Halo 3 doing in the 5-7 million region like the previous 2. MP3 I think would do half that, realistically if it does 33% Nintendo can be happy.
That being said there are two great unknowns for MP3. First, it hasn't sold well in Japan where 30% of Wiis will be owned. Will going to a more FPS style help it enough that it's worth writing off 200k or so sales in Japan? Second, is this the title that proves the Wiimote for FPS' and the Wii for online multiplayer? If it is it could be the Wii sports for the hard core gaming crowd. I think there is promise on both accounts, Wii FPS controls were almost there in several games (it is a new control method so not surprising that the first games didn't implement it well) and MP:Hunters has a great online multiplayer mode that sees 32,000 players a day with fewer than 1 million in sales. As with its more FPS style we'll have to see.
