Comparing 12 months of the PS3 vrs PS2 (& PSP) (in Japan)

[Parokki]

By now I'm fairly certain that the PS3 will never come even close to 10 million units sold in Japan. The market there has a long history of choosing one console over the rest, and they've clearly made their choice already.

5 million is probably happening, but even 7 would be pretty unlikely.