I say week one sales should be around 450k in the first week.
Super Smash bros. N64 218k
Super Smash bros. Melee 360k
I say around that much because the Wii has a larger install base now than GCN when SSBM because it was a launch title. The inclusion of Sonic and Snake is huge for Japanese hardcore gamers, and knowing Nintendo they probally got more than just two third party characters that they didnt tell us about yet.
By then approx. 4.5M to 5.5M Wiis should be in Japan by then giving SSBB a penatration of 10% max to 8.2% in its first week, which is similar to SMG first week penatration of 7% of the market. So I'm estimating that the inclusion of Snake and Sonic would make the hardcore fans go crazy over this game. Especially since this is the first time they can play as snake in probally more than a years time once MGSGP finally gets released.
So I was trying to have a realistic estimate based on past sales and future hype, and not going way up because of SMG numbers showing a shift in the market, at least in terms of first week sales.
"Like you know"
