The next generation of consoles?

[jarrod]

Next gen, I think we'll see everyone choosing designs based more on efficiency versus raw spec. They'll choose chips that will economically scale better, and build architectures more around maximizing potential and ease of use rather than hitting absolute insane theoreticals . This gen pretty much killed the spec war imo, though we'll still see a generational transition, it'll just be a "smaller step" than it would've had PS360 led the market. I think next gen we'll see everyone launching at $249-399 too.

I also see Microsoft making backwards compatibility a priority, given their new DirectX mandate for 360 R&D (they're not allowing "to the metal" codingt, everything on 360 must be DX10 compliant or it doesn't pass QA). Xbox 3 may actually be the only fully backwards compatible console imo, though I'd also expect Nintendo to try and retain it (to help bring their huge userbase over). Sony could go either way imo, they don't have much to lose and they don't seem as married to the concept of backwards compatibility as they used to be. It really depends on if they decide to retain CELL or drop it in favor of something more efficient.

Wii 2/Plus/HD/Blu/Zii/whatever will probably be the lowest spec again, but I think it'll outperform 360/PS3 in most respects (similar to Wii vs PS2/GC/Xbox). Generally, I think all 3 will be closer in spec than this gen too, ensuring more multiplatform development across ALL 3 (at least initially, R&D will likely refocus proportionally on 1st/2nd place as the gen wears on). I also think all 3 will hit in 2012 and all 3 will use Blu-Ray media. Not sure about controllers, but I think they'll all be close to what the current gen has by year's end but better integrated (Wiimote/Nunckuck/Motion+, 360pad/Natal, DS3/Gem/Eye).

Wii may also get an iterative "premium" update in the interim imo (like DSi versus a theoretical DS2). With more optional stuff like HD scaling (but with an additional dedicated scaler chip/RAM, not an entirely new next gen chipset), a larger flash drive (1-8GB), HD (7.1) audio, integrated Wiimote/Motion+, DVD movie playback, lithium-ion rechargable Wiimotes, different color options, etc. And probably a price hike back to $249. If it doesn't happen by the end of 2010 though (at least for America/Japan), they'll just hold off for the real successor in 2012.