2-3 million first week, 8+ million lifetime (possibly 9-10 million)
Reasons the driving genre isn't dead and GT5 will do just fine:
1. Need For Speed's success. Every Need For Speed on the PS3 except Carbon (which was I think a launch title so low userbase) has sold 1 million units. And the 4 NFS games combined have sold 5 million units
2. GT5 Prologue - I has, what, like 40 cars and a handful of tracks for $40. Yeah it sold 3 million units and is still selling well. Actually its more like 4 million counting downloads. GT is far from dead.
3. There are 11 racing games with a minimum 500k sales on the PS3. That's a pretty solid number. And a further 17 on the 360. Oh and there's just 14 FPS games on PS3 that sold 500k. So racing games are just below FPS in sales.
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