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People just get way too excited over the short-term bursts, and let it get to their head. GTA4 was the same story. Example:

BMaker11 said:
MW2 sold (projected) betwenn 2M and 3M DAY ONE. Factor in the rest of the week, plus the holiday bump.

I doubt NSMB will even break 1M week one, let alone day one

1. MW2 360
2. MW2 PS3
3. NSMB

Put aside NSMB Wii selling 1M week one - in the end, it'll have nearly made 6 consecutive million selling weeks. That's a ridiculous feat on its own.
I'm honestly not sure why people assumed this would sell like SMG, the games are nothing alike. Though it looks like Rol was able to convince BHR.
Anyway, I knew NSMB vs 360 would be close (by the end of Jan), but I definitely thought 360 MW had a bigger shot. I completely underestimated NSMB Wii in Japan, I honestly didn't think a console game could sell like that there...