I can't believe how you can be so incredibly sensible on most points but then blatantly deny that it's sales performance would be affected by FF13 and NSMBWii. NSMBWii is a massive release on the Wii, FF13 is a massive release for the JRPG crowd.
Wii owners are very likely to pick up NSMBWii, and that means that they may not have more money for another game in the same timeframe - Tales of Graces suffers.
JRPG fans are very likely to pick up FF13, and that means that they may not have more money for another game in the same timeframe - Tales of Graces suffers.
Tales of Graces is sandwiched between two scenarios which are almost guaranteed to make it suffer in some varying degree and you should know this, given how sensible you seem. It is simply beyond me how you can outright deny this.
As for your other points, I'm sure you know a lot more than I do about all of this. I could bet on the fact that you do and probably win a healthy sum of money (if anyone were stupid enough to bet against me), but things aren't set in stone. Tales-games are usually frontloaded, sure. I think Graces will be frontloaded too. But I do not think that it will stop at 250k, I really don't. I see it landing around 300k, judging from these numbers - But that's just the problem. I don't want to judge from these numbers. Because they are only first day sales, and there are a ton of variables that are just too unsure that make it even less appealing to judge from these numbers.
