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Majin-Tenshinhan on 11 December 2009
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mrstickball said:
Majin-Tenshinhan said:
mrstickball said:
patjuan32 said:
mrstickball said:
Great for Modern Warfare 2, personally disappointing for Tales of Graces. Its a mainline Tales game, yet will not be anywhere close to Vesperia (X360+PS3)

Actually the game sold very well considering the competition that it has to face, New Super Mario Bros. and Final Fantasy XIII. Just the fact that it is on the same console as New Super Mario Bros. and still managed to sell in line with the other main Tales games is a plus. This means its probably going to sell very well.

So games can't sell well when there are any other major games coming out? I don't think that is good logic at all.

Which mainline Tales did it sell near? Vesperia on the worst selling console this gen?

Why do you think every single game except NSMBWii and Assassin's Creed II got delayed to Q1 2010? Because of Modern Warfare 2. We all know it. Don't try and deny it. Sure, a few probably got delayed for extra dev time or whatever, but most were afraid of getting eaten alive. Which they most likely would have.

Also, it's way too early to tell if it sold near mainline Tales-games or not because these are first day sales.

What about Left 4 Dead, Dragon Age, and about a dozen other games that launched this quarter? I'd argue that games moved to Q1 and Q2 of 2010 not because of Modern Warfare but rather because of how bad some titles did in 2008 despite no behemoth in competition. Furthermore, we're talking about Japan here, and not North America or Europe.

Do you realize how well first day sales for RPGs go to predict the long tail of the title? This isn't a new IP we're talking about, but a mainline game in a very established series. Because of that, we can easily project sales for Tales of Graces using DOTNW and multiple other Tales games.

The simple fact is this: Tales of Graces did not reach Vesperia on PS3, nor Dawn of the New World on first day, nor any older Tales game. Tales games are usually frontloaded and cater to a specific user base. Because of these known facts it is very reasonable to make the assumption that this Tales game will struggle to reach 300,000 in Japan (low for a Tales game), and may be closer to 250,000 when everything is said and done.

 

But there are way too many things you are just flat-out ignoring. It's the holiday season, which means lower openings and longer legs. It's still positioned right between NSMBWii and FF13 - And don't try telling me that that doesn't affect sales performance, because that's just ludicrous. It's still first day sales. Even if it's first week sales it's way too easy to be calling bomb, but hell, if you'd wait that long at least I wouldn't complain as much. And, of course, the biggest one of them all - We still have no idea if the hardware bundles are counted in this number or not. No idea. Whatsoever.