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As I said in JL thread on Wii Fit, I think this game has serious potential to draw in new users (aging population in Japan, casual in Europe and us overweight NA) but ultimately it'll depend on how fun/fit it really is.

If it lives up the the hype it'll be HUGE. However, Halo 3 sales out the gate - no. Nintendo is just not bold enough to forcast those sales, to produce those # of units or ship them all to stores. Having stores with huge stockpiles of WiiFits because it didn't sell 1m in a week would give the impression it's a bomb.