Gearbox, I hear where you're coming from, but...
Look at the Wii sales. They're spiking during the holiday season. Look at the Wii demographics and the most successful products. Moms and kids.
The Wii is a starter console. It practically defines what a starter console is. Kids like games. Kids will get Wiis for the holidays for many years to come, until its replaced by a new starter console.
The Wii will continue to sell well (there are a LOT of kids wanting a game console every year!) until a new starter console replaces it, whether that's the Wii HD, or something else. I don't think the Wii's sales to "non starter"/not-blue-ocean consumers are substantial enough for us to see a drop off of the magnitude you are suggesting, even if the Wii continues to fall out of favor with the traditional console demographic.
The Wii will likely continue to reign as the biggest HW seller throughout 2010. Even in 2011, it will likely retain that spot, unless it is superceded by a Wii HD.
