saicho said:
ZorroX said:
saicho said:
ZorroX said:
saicho said:
ZorroX said:
@jarrod, one game is not enough.
There must be several big games for success in Japan.
Again, strong support =/= big sales, but a lot of games. And PS3 owns Saturn/N64/GC in terms of quantity and quality of 1st/2nd party games. Though, most games are west oriented.
Also, +-5k i count as around 30k+ levels. I mean, 27-28k it`s still around 30k+.
I don`t expect PS3 to go below 25k for 5 weeks in Japan during 2010.
@saicho, i don`t make bets for half a year or a year. That would take to much time for waiting.
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This thread is gonna take 6 months to see how it would turn out and you don't seem to mind waiting.
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So 6 months bet and from today... So, you wanna bet, that PS3 will sell below 25k for more than 5 weeks during January - February - March - April - May. You really do?
Well, i think PS3 will reach 5M atleast by the end of March 2010 in Japan(if GT5 still will come in March). And there is a slim chance, that this will happen before the end of January, since you never know, how big will be this holiday for PS3.
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now you are just twisting my words and backing off from your original prediction.
1. The thread was made at the end of September and neither Wii or PS3 is gonna hit the target stated until end of Mar which is 6 months. You said you don't make bets for half a year or a year.
2. Ogirinally you said "Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010." and I said it won't happen. Now you are changing the bar to 25K. 30K+ would mean more than 30K, not more than 25K.
3. Dec 2009 is not part of 2010. I would bet with you that in the first 6 months of 2010, PS3 would sell less than 30K in Japan for at least 3 weeks. 10 % of 6 months is 2.6 weeks.
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No, i`m not.
1) With whom i made 6 months bet? It`s a race, yes. Bet?
2) Since PS3 pricecut and slim release in Japan, PS3 was below 30k on VGC only once, and only by 1,5k. That`s what i call stabilized at 30k+. Those several thousand really don`t matter to me. Also, there are 4 tracking sources, which sometimes show different result. Below 25k for all trackers is definitely not stabilized at 30k+.
3) But from today it would be 6 months bet, because i stated about 30k+ level several days ago and not after 1 month. Again, those 10% work for whole year, but might not work for half a year.
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1. I agree the thread is not a bet but it shows you do have the patience to wait.
2. You do know that 5K is about 17% of 30K. That's a big margin of error. It's like saying a console is almost selling at 40K whiel it's only 33K. Besides, if it is stablized ar 30K+, it means it should always be above 30K. If it is stablized at 30K, then you can say it would flutuate
3. You said "They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010." It shouldn't matter when you made the statement. You are predicting the sales for 2010. Why does it matter if you made that statement several days ago or not? Also, 6 weeks in the first 6 month is more than 20% of the period.
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1) Yeah, patience to wait, but not for whole year. And i said: "Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010." That`s 5 weeks for a whole year and 5 weeks for a half year not 2-3.
2) So, you are saying, that if 1 week of total 11 so far, PS3 sold several thousand below 30k, sales haven`t stabilized at 30k+? Do you understand, that there is always a margin of error? In my case it`s +-5k. By the way, 15-20% is within VGC standarts. You need 10%?
Otherwise, PS3 sales haven`t stabilized at 30k+, because of 1 week since pricecut, when PS3 sales were below 30k. For me it has stabilized at 30k+, and those several thousand are neglible.
3) Because i`m not making bets for 6-12 months(but maybe will make exception for you). And if i would make a bet with you today, that would be a 7 months bet(which include first 6 months of 2010?). Got it?
I think, i`m done with you? Or you still wanna bet?
