c0rd on 14 November 2009
I agree with ioi, he said what I've been trying to tell everyone - it's wrong to extrapolate lifetime sales with its first week (as if legs will be better on a sequel).
The best (or most recent) example I can think of is Gears of War and its sequel. While the sequel opened far higher than the original, the game started seeing slower monthly sales as early as January, and has since been selling below its predecessor.
@theprof: 7mil by March NPD? That's way too high, see its predecessors. It'll be around 5mil, closing in on 6 at best. I don't how quickly Mario will initially sell, so I'd imagine it will catch up sometime between May and October. If we're talking worldwide, it won't take nearly as long (Japan will be a big boost).
