Time for another update..now that we have Nintendo financial data.
Hardware sold worldwide: 19.17 million
360 ~ 50.2% (looks like May will be the month this dips below 50%)
Wii ~ 33.4% (think of it this way, 360 sales are only 1.5x greater than Wii, despite 3x the length of sales time)
PS3 ~ 16.4% (may shrink below 15% pre-Fall)
Japan total hardware sold: 3.46 million
Wii ~ 63.9% (can go much higher if it keeps outselling PS3 by 5 or 6 or 7 to 1)
PS3 ~ 25.4% (shrinking)
360 ~ 10.7% (should be under 10% in a few weeks)
Americas total hardware 9.87 million
360 ~ 60.5% (unassailable lead I think)
Wii ~ 25.7% (May hit 35% market share by year end)
PS3 ~ 13.8% (May hit 20% marketshare by year end)
Others total hardware 5.84 million
360 ~ 56% (down to 40-45% by year end I think)
Wii ~ 28.4% (up to 35% by year end I think)
PS3 ~ 15.6% (20-25% by year end I think)
How I look at marketshare in this industry:
90%+ Monopolistic/Complete Dominance by one company
80%+ Dominance by one company
70% + Strong Winner, Healthy number 2 possible, number 3 can be profitiable if everything goes right..
60% + Healthy Winner, Fierce battle for 2nd place, number 3 can be profitable fairly easily
50%+ Winner, but fierce competition, 2nd place guy can gain alot next time, 3rd guy can do very well too
35-50% Usually a period of waning dominance, transition, or intense competition between two of the big three
25-35% Almost always enough for a strong second place finish.
15%-25% Weak Position, can't afford to lose more ground
5-15% Almost impossible to come back
0-5% Impossible to come back.
Looking at how each generation played out then..
8 Bit: NES - 90%+
16 Bit (SNES, Gen only) - SNES - 61.5%, Genesis - 38.5%
32 Bit (PS1, N64, Sat only) - PS1 - 72.1%, N64 - 23.2%, Saturn - 4.8%
Online Gen* (DC, PS2, Xbox, GC) PS2 - 66.9%, Xbox - 14.8%, GC - 12.8%, DC - 5.5%
Current Gen (360, Wii, PS3) 360 - 50.2%, Wii - 33.4%, PS3 - 16.4%
Current Gen in 1 year from now (prediction) Wii - 42%, 360 - 36%, PS3 - 22%
Final Current Generation (2012) Wii - 38%, PS3 - 33%, 360 - 29%
* PS2 is still selling, so these percentages will shrink for Xbox, GC, DC until PS2 is fully dead
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
