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Wasn't Wii Sports Resort and Motion Pluss going to skyrocket the hardware sales? The price cut did work though but it has still to reach former glory (2008 numbers).
In regards to 3rd parties; they're largely decided for this gen, we won't see huge shifts in effort from here on out I think, convincing developers to make bigger budget games on a console in decline that also seems to have a problem moving such software is a daunting task indeed.
The Wii will have another great holiday season, no doubt (not sure it'll trump last years numbers though even with a lower price), but early 2010 will be telling and will reveal it's fate.