A bit on Wii, PS3, 360 shipment figures

[reverie]

@davygee

I don't think they said that they can't produce more than 14 million units. As we saw with the DS, forecasts can be upped 50 % if necessary. Wanna know how I think they calculated it? By demand, not by supply. 

The Wii sold 5.85 million units in 5 months.

5.85 / 5 = 1.17 -- monthly sales potential

1.17 * 12 = 14 -- annual sales potential

Sure that doesn't make a lot of sense as you could factor in Christmas, factor out launch sales, factor in Super Mario Galaxy and other games, factor out PS Eye and Home, factor in a Wii price drop, factor out a 360 price drop... I'm not even beginning to talk about the effects of possible terrorist attacks, oil shocks or global warming. Or strikes in China. Or senior executives dying in a plane crash...

14 million is a guideline. You can't predict it more precisely.

The only thing that can be counted on right now:

- 1 milion unit pent up demand from people who have wanted one but couldn't get it

- 2 million unit demand from retailers who want decent stock (and that's conservative)

After that, in 6 months from now, they will tell if they need to up the forecast or not. I think they will.