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RVDondaPC on 21 October 2009
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Rath said:
RVDondaPC said:
Rath said:
Let me put it this way. The generation generally starts to die when a new console from one of the major manufacturers is released - this event occurs at the same time for all manufacturers.

The PS3 and the XBOX360 will be hit by the downturn caused by the start of the next generation at the same time and it is therefore illogical to compare them in the way the OP does.


Imagine two people in a first to the finish running race where one person gets a five second head start. While the other person may run faster it doesn't mean they're going to cross the finishing line first.

Is that so? Go ahead and look at the decline of the XBOX and PS2 sales. Then go back and look at the N64 and PS sales declines. They are not at the same time. Not even close. You are just coming up with some poor analogy to fit your assumptions that are incorrect. 

Historically that is because the console that is at the lead at the time the next generation begins continues to sell for a measure into the next generation.

An example of the next generation killing sales I believe can be given by this graph.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=38284&end=38935

Now my model of the runners is obviously hugely simplistic and doesn't represent the real world situation well at all when taken as the sole model, but it does represent an important aspect of the situation that the OP ignored. It ignores the fact that outside factors at a certain time can have an effect on the sales of both consoles.

To state that either the PS3 is going to win because it is ahead in sales in the same amount of time since launch or that the 360 is going to win because it is ahead in overall sales is incorrect either way. Both of them ignore certain factors that drive sales.

 

 

To me that graph just shows me that the GC's sales were already declining and when the 360 was released it enabled the GC to start outselling the XBOX. Look at the graph, the year prior to the 360 release the XBOX outsold the GC every week, then once the 360 was released the GC outsold the xbox for the whole holiday season and then regained the sales advantage around may and continued on while the XBOX stopped being manufactured. It doesn't look like it accelerated the decline of the GC all that much, it kept it's same steady decline while the XBOX on the other hand shot down pretty quickly once the 360 was available. Let's take a look at the graph continued...

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=PS&reg3=All&start=38627&end=39327

As you can see the GC continued to sell fairly well into the next holiday season while the XBOX was just dying a slow death. We don't even have to mention how fast the DC died that generation...

As for your mention of other certain factors playing a role. I addressed that in a post about 10 posts above the one I just quoted you in. I suggest reading that and then furthering your point by addressing that post and counter pointing anything I said there. I would like to hear what you have to say.