I think it for a few reasons.
Main reason - I expect Xbox 3 to be out by late 2011/ early 2012. Which i also expect there to be a Halo game for launch, cutting Reach legs by a lot.
Others - Halo Wars/ ODST will have put a bunch of people off.
Bigger install base doesn't always mean bigger software sales.
I don't expect it to have the hype Halo 3 had.
Another CoD game will be launching around the same time (i expect the 'casuals' to go for this)
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